How to Bet on MLB Awards After the All-Star Break - MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year

We’ve had quite the exciting first half of the 2023 MLB season, capped off by an excellent Home Run Derby and the National League securing their first All-Star Game win in a decade. Now, the real fun begins. With each team staring down approximately 70 games left in the regular season, we’re rapidly approaching “do-or-die” time for the teams on the playoff bubble or those locked in a division battle (looking at you Brewers and Reds).

Last week, we looked at three team futures to make at the All-Star Break, featuring one Division, League and World Series winner, all backed by our cutting-edge predictive analytics model. Looking to find some value on your own? Head to our MLB Futures page and dive on in.

MORE: Today’s Best MLB Props

This time, we’re hunting for value in player awards. It’s a bit of a unique situation, as both MVP races appear all but locked up in a largely unprecedented scenario (more on that below). Outside of the MVP awards, however, you’ve got your fair share of tight races and plus-money value in every award.

What do the AL and NL MVP Races Look Like?

Shohei Ohtani sits at anywhere from a -800 to -650 favorite (best odds at FanDuel) to win AL MVP while Ronald Acuña Jr. also has a substantial lead in the odds as a consensus -450 favorite across most books. If you were to parlay them together, you’d get yourself a -234 payout, which isn’t the worst if you’re comfortable laying the juice, but it’s not a bet we’d recommend, especially considering that same parlay in the preseason would have netted you an incredible +3420 payout, a ticket I happen to be sitting on myself.

Back in June, just before Ohtani got scorching hot, we recommended parlaying him to win AL MVP with all of your futures bets to juice up the payout. That window has long since closed. There is one MVP market for you to consider, though but it comes with the caveat that you truly believe Shohei Ohtani will be traded prior to the August 1^st deadline.

Most books are offering a market where you can bet on Ohtani or Acuña to win their respective MVP vs. The Field. For +500, you can bet that any player besides Ohtani will take home the AL MVP award. A trade wouldn’t outright eliminate Ohtani from contention but would immediately open up the floodgates for the de facto favorites like Corey Seager and Wander Franco to make a run. You’ll find the best odds at BetMGM (and can score yourself a “no-sweat” bet up to $1,000 on this in the process if you’re not already a BetMGM user).

How to Bet on AL and NL Rookie of the Year

The American League Rookie of the Year award has largely been a three-horse race all season. Headlined by the Rangers’ Josh Jung and followed by the Red Sox’s Masataka Yoshida and the Orioles’ Gunnar Henderson, there’s a significant drop-off in the odds past the three favorites.

Josh Jung stands in front at +180 with his best odds on FanDuel. Doing a bit of line reading, you’ll find that he’s as short as +120 on BetMGM, and they also have the longest odds for Masataka Yoshida at +250 meaning +180 is pretty good value for a race that looks pretty tight on paper. Gunnar Henderson rounds out the trio with his best odds at +330.

Jung is by far having the best season of the three. He leads all of them in WAR (2.5), home runs (19) and RBI (58). He’s also played in all but three of the Rangers’ games this year. Yoshida is slashing an impressive .317 as a rookie and just hit 50 RBI the other day, but his raw power isn’t the same, given his 11 homers to Jung’s 19. Meanwhile, Gunnar Henderson has a .245 average, respectable for a rookie, but trails them both in RBI. Jung has managed nearly 100 more at-bats than Henderson in just nine more games played.

Barring injury or a major slump, Jung should start to pull away with this award and could find himself in minus odds territory before too long. The Rangers are in first place in the AL West and could secure the first division title since 2016 which will carry extra weight come voting time. However, if the Orioles (8-2 over their last 10) can snatch the AL East title from the Rays (3-7 last 10) Henderson could have a legitimate shot and we wouldn’t be surprised to see him pass Yoshida as the second favorite.

In the National League, you’ve got basically two options. Corbin Carroll is the major favorite at roughly -360 depending on where you look. He’s been an absolute sensation since Day 1 with the D-Backs, and his .284 AVG, 18 HR and .894 OPS are all good enough for the top 20% in the league. Just unreal stuff for a rookie. He’s a massive part of why Arizona has been in contention for the NL West so far this season. However, his short odds make him largely unbettable at that price, meaning you’ll have to parlay Carroll with another bet you like (like Josh Jung to win AL ROY perhaps).

The other side of the NL ROY coin is rookie phenom Elly De La Cruz, who would far and away be the favorite if not for Carroll’s nearly three-month head start. Elly does something seemingly unbelievable on what feels like a daily basis. Whether it’s recording a ripping hot 112mph double in his first game or a 458-foot blast for his first career HR or stealing every base from a single plate appearance the kid is simply unreal. He’s powered the Reds into NL Central contention and is almost guaranteed to be near the top of the MVP list next year.

OMG ELLY! 🤯 https://t.co/yXcmWmKwM1

— Dimers.com (@DimersCom) July 8, 2023

Carroll had himself a bit of an injury scare earlier this month which actually saw the entire NL ROY market come off the board for a day or so until he was cleared of any injury. Though Corbin is the clear favorite, if Elly continues to blow us away *and* the Reds can secure the division title, you’ve got yourself some value on De La Cruz at +280 right now.

How to Bet the Cy Young Awards

Finally, an award race that *doesn’t* feature a massive minus-odds favorite. Our tightest races, and to little surprise, are the Cy Young Awards handed out to the league’s best pitchers.

In the National League, you’ve got Spencer Strider (+210) and Zac Gallen (+250) leading the way as the two consensus favorites. They’ve each got 11 wins which are the most in the NL, regardless of how you value them in today’s MLB. Strider’s 176 strikeouts are nearly 40 more than the next NL-qualified pitcher, Blake Snell. That, coupled with being on the best team in the league is enough to give you frontrunner status. Of these two option, Strider is the clear choice. Though Gallen is having one of the best seasons of his career to date, he’s on a lesser team and would need to really take things up a notch to beat Strider.

Going down the board but still in realistic territory, you’ve got Blake Snell (anywhere from +550 out to +800) and Clayton Kershaw (+1000 to +1200). Interestingly enough, both Snell (2.71) and Kershaw (2.55) have the lowest ERA out of these four candidates, and by a decent margin. Snell is statistically having his best season since his 2018 Cy Young winning effort. His odds of +550 on DraftKings suggest the race is tighter than it would appear, but he’s likely taking a hit in the books’ eyes due to playing on the pitiful Padres. The Dodgers’ 10x All-Star is having himself a great year by most metrics, but he trails the rest of the board by a significant among in the strikeout department.

Switch over to the American League and you’ll find the tightest race of them all. The Yankees’ Gerrit Cole and the Astros’ Framber Valdez are roughly co-favorites right around +250. A preseason favorite, Cole saw himself drop down the board for a while before a strong June and July pushed him back to the top, while Framber Valdez has been one of the most consistent pitchers over the past two seasons. Behind them are the Blue Jays’ Kevin Gausman (+370) and the Rays' Shane McClanahan (+550). All four of them lead the American League in ERA.

Gausman has the most strikeouts with 153 with Cole not far behind with 134. McClanahan has the most wins with 11 and again, Cole trails closely with 9. With each pitcher seeing approximately 10-12 more starts, it’s going to take some significant highs or lows to see some major shuffles in this market. A pair of lights-out starts could vault Gausman into the lead during one of his best seasons. He’s got a chance to post career-bests in strikeouts and ERA. The Valdez odds feel like a smokescreen; he’s not having a better season than a single one of the other three.

Gerrit Cole is putting up his usual brand of elite numbers, but as the already reigning Cy Young winner, could the Yankees’ potential last-place finish hurt his chances with the voters? In McClanahan’s case, he’s pitching for one of the top teams in MLB and the Rays’ offense continues to rake regardless of who’s on the mound, likely pulling some of the credit away from Shane, though he’s the most appealing wager based on value alone.

It’s a market rife with value, albeit a tough one to dissect. Your best bets are likely sticking with Cole and Gausman as they have the best case when looking at numbers alone.

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