How Kevin Durant’s Trade Request Impacts Odds on the 2023 NBA Championship

Story updated on Monday, July 18 (11:00 am ET) to reflect Deandre Ayton heading back to the Phoenix Suns

When the NBA offseason began, nearly every major sportsbook showed the Golden State Warriors as favorites to repeat in 2023. Three weeks later, things have changed. 

Kevin Durant wants out of Brooklyn. Until we know where he’s headed, odds for the 2023 NBA Championship will fluctuate with every rumor. Fluctuation means opportunity. It also means risk.   

Dimers.com contributor Mac Douglass breaks down the contenders vs. pretenders in the KD sweepstakes, and details the implications of Durant’s trade request on odds for the 2023 NBA Championship. 

What’s so important about Kevin Durant? 

We all remember the 2016 and 2019 offseasons. Kevin Durant was a free agent; players, executives, and gamblers held their breath. While Durant is still an elite talent—albeit not quite so dominant as he was—things are different now. 

To leave Brooklyn, KD needs to be traded, which would land the Nets one of the largest hauls in history. Unlike 2016 and 2019, bettors don’t just need to correctly determine Number 35’s landing place; they also need to decide whether that team’s hollowed out roster will be a championship favorite once he arrives. 

NBA Pretenders vs. Contenders  

Odds for the 2023 NBA Championship have already changed dramatically, due in large part to Durant’s request. As of now, the Boston Celtics and Phoenix Suns are favorites, with the Warriors, Bucks, and Clippers jostling over the next few slots. Let’s take a look at which teams’ odds at the 2023 title have been affected already, and which teams’ odds could be most affected, if and when Durant is dealt.  

Phoenix Suns

When Durant requested his trade, he reportedly informed Nets management of his preference to be dealt to Phoenix, Miami and perhaps other, undisclosed locations. Flying relatively under the radar was the detail that Durant’s current contract does not include a no-trade clause. Besides refusing to play, KD has essentially zero leverage. Nonetheless, one of his preferred destinations, Phoenix, is both the current favorite to land him, and amongst the 2023 title favorites. Miami is neither. Why?  

"His goal is to play with Devin Booker." @CoachAvery6 on the Phoenix Suns being the top destination for Kevin Durant. pic.twitter.com/Aul0eCebIJ

— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) July 6, 2022

Phoenix can offer the Nets a package based around budding star Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson and a plethora of first-round picks and pick swaps. Durant would slot in at Bridges’ old position, which would be a massive upgrade to an already elite Suns’ roster.  

There were early reports that indicated the Nets would insist on Devin Booker in any trade package. Those proved to be untrue, with the Suns actually giving their superstar a massive contract extension. Phoenix is now far from a shoo-in, but the team has a decent package to offer and Durant badly wants to head to The Valley. That goes a long way in a superstar-driven league. 

Miami Heat

Miami, at a glance, could offer a package with Tyler Herro swapping in for Mikal Bridges, and Bam Adebayo for Durant. But wait: per the NBA’s Designated Rookie Extension Rule, the Nets can't trade for Adebayo as long as Ben Simmons is on the roster. 

There’s a ‘significant obstacle’ on the Kevin Durant to Miami trade front, per @sam_amick

“Durant, it seems, would only want to play on a Heat team that includes Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Kyle Lowry.”

(Via https://t.co/E4DUkVEPMZ) pic.twitter.com/c1kbRjtF3F

— NBACentral (@TheNBACentral) July 1, 2022

This means a third team would need to be included, and actually want Simmons. Add to that the fact that Durant is reportedly uninterested in playing on a Heat team that doesn’t include Butler and Adebayo, and we understand why the Heat’s title odds have remained more or less intact, despite Miami’s inclusion on KD’s wishlist.  

Golden State Warriors

We’ve all heard the chatter. Durant is open to reuniting with the Dubs, and vice versa. With four coveted young talents — Jonathan Kuminga, James Wiseman, Moses Moody and Jordan Poole — the Warriors should have an extremely attractive package. 

But it’s unlikely this deal gets done. Not only are last year’s champs motivated to hold onto their youngsters, but to make salaries work, Andrew Wiggins would have to be traded as well. That’s probably a non-starter, because like Adebayo, Wiggins is playing on a rookie extension that prevents him from playing with Ben Simmons. (The same is true of Donovan Mitchell, hence Utah’s failure to crack this list.)  

Could @KDTrey5 really be headed back to the @Warriors? @MarcJSpears tells @MedcalfByESPN and @gneitzel16 that it's a distinct possibility. pic.twitter.com/ziwnqtJOEA

— ESPN Radio (@ESPNRadio) July 3, 2022

Even though Durant probably won’t rejoin the Warriors, Golden State’s odds at a repeat could hinge on where he ends up.

The mere possibility of Durant joining the Suns could mean the Warriors losing their title as the favorites to win, and the Warriors could see that as motivation to go after him if things really do get close with Phoenix. 

Boston Celtics

Like Golden State, Boston’s inclusion on this list is mostly owed to the prospect of KD joining a Celtics’ rival. After Celtics general manager Brad Stevens managed to trade for Malcolm Brogdon, while keeping his team’s core intact, the Celtics overtook the Warriors as 2023 favorites, where they were promptly joined by the Suns when news of Durant’s request broke. 

Kevin Durant is extremely not going to the Boston Celtics. Me for @ForbesSports https://t.co/GZBwwxFLPz

— Hunter Felt (@HunterFelt) July 11, 2022

While Boston could offer its own attractive package for Durant, should they part with Jaylen Brown, oddsmakers are skeptical, reflected in Boston’s long odds at landing KD.   

Brooklyn Nets

After entering the 2021-22 season as title favorites, Brooklyn doesn’t crack the Top 5 of any major sportsbook’s odds for 2022-23.

This is curious, in light of recent reports suggesting a KD trade might not be such a sure thing. It remains far more probable Durant will finish next season someplace besides Brooklyn, but should that change, and particularly if Kyrie Irving stays put, bets placed on the Nets at their current odds to take next year’s title, will look like a steal.    

Takeaways 

There remain all sorts of moving parts, and many teams omitted from this list, notably the Toronto Raptors, are constantly coming in and out of the fray. With that said, understanding the nuances, such as Durant’s lack of leverage, and the obstacles created by the Designated Rookie Extension Rule, can provide bettors a massive leg up.  

Kevin Durant coming to the Toronto raptors😱 pic.twitter.com/uAudOdN1yF

— Erin Garcia (@SClothes123) July 2, 2022

One thing is certain: as long as Durant’s status is in flux, rumors will swirl, and championship odds along with them. With a clear understanding of what’s possible, what’s probable and what’s wishful thinking, the NBA offseason is an unparalleled opportunity to place early wagers at great odds, or to waste an awful lot of money trying.  

Where will Kevin Durant play next season? (odds from July 11)

Phoenix Suns	+110
Brooklyn Nets	+250
Toronto Raptors	+400
Golden State Warriors	+1400
Miami Heat	+1400
Chicago Bulls	+2000
Portland Trail Blazers	+2000
New Orleans Pelicans	+2200
Philadelphia 76ers	+2500
L.A. Lakers	+3000
Boston Celtics	+3000
Memphis Grizzlies	+3000