How Bettors Should Assess the Aftermath of the MLB Trade Deadline

Now that the MLB trade deadline has come and gone, bettors need to weigh their options and think about how teams have improved, how much and what it means to their wagers. In addition, there could be benefit in looking at the teams that did very little or even gutted their rosters as openings could present themselves to make a profit.

Dimers.com contributor Paul Lebowitz discusses what this means the rest of the way in the 2022 MLB season.

The Biggest Splashes

San Diego Padres

In what should by now be familiar, Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller made the boldest and splashiest moves in acquiring Juan Soto, Josh Hader and Josh Bell. In addition, he also added Brandon Drury, who is in the midst of a career year.

Preller is like an unrestrained 10-year-old arranging super-teams with his baseball cards. He’s George Costanza plotting for when he became Yankees GM and traded for Ken Griffey Jr. and Barry Bonds. Preller puts together teams that are a child’s fantasy.

Every year since he’s been running the Padres baseball operations, it’s been bold moves in the winter and bold moves at the deadline.

But what about the postseason?

The Padres have won absolutely nothing despite all the accolades and “WOW!!!” Preller receives for his aggression. As he makes these huge acquisitions, the Padres are 12 games out of first place behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West and are not catching them. A wild-card spot in the competitive National League is not even guaranteed. It is also not a positive for a team to change a fifth or more of its roster every deadline and to repeatedly alienate respected veterans like Eric Hosmer making it clear that anyone and everyone can be traded at any time.

Before jumping on the Padres bandwagon and betting on them for the NL pennant or World Series win, it might be wise to step back and think about their history under this GM and the competition they face.

New York Yankees

The American League East is in the Yankees’ hands and that’s not about to change. They knew they needed to beef up their starting rotation and did so with Frankie Montas. They also acquired side-arming righty Scott Effross from the Chicago Cubs, Andrew Benintendi from the Kansas City Royals and, in something of a surprise, sent Jordan Montgomery to the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for Harrison Bader.

In addition, they moved Joey Gallo to the Dodgers and actually got a decent prospect in return.

What grade are you giving the Yankees trade deadline? pic.twitter.com/35M2Wr1Jgs

— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) August 2, 2022

The moves were clearly directed at the postseason. Obviously, they are not comfortable with Aaron Judge in center field full-time and Bader is a Gold Glove winner. They also wanted a specialist righty in Effross for the potential match-up with the Houston Astros. 

The Understated

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers didn’t need much considering their position with the best record in the National League. That’s never stopped them from looking to make major moves and they were involved in trying to get Soto.

The Dodgers' trade deadline wasn't a fan favorite, but they were quite active

‣ Taking a chance on a 2-time All-Star
‣ Acquired some prospects, one of which has Top 100 potential
‣ Cleared space on 40-man roster

A grade for every move they madehttps://t.co/GJp0KMLRaR

— Blake Harris (@BlakeHarrisTBLA) August 3, 2022

Still, they settled for what was, to many, a head-scratcher in taking Joey Gallo off the Yankees’ hands. Before automatically dismissing Gallo as completely useless as his Yankees tenure suggests he is, it’s important to note that the Dodgers have taken unknown or forgotten players like Justin Turner, Max Muncy and Chris Taylor, tweaked a few things, adjusted their approach and turned them into legitimate candidates for Most Valuable Player. Simply getting him out of New York will help him making him a low-level rebound candidate. He certainly can’t be any worse.

Houston Astros

The Astros got their righty bat (Trey Mancini); improved their bullpen (Will Smith); and got a better bat behind the plate (Christian Vazquez). It appears that the Yankees and Astros are making deals with the other in mind. Inevitable collision courses are not always as inevitable as they seem, but it makes sense to expect the teams to eventually need to deal with one another.

Boston Red Sox

In years past, when the Red Sox felt they were in close enough contention to go for it, they did.

If they believed their team was poorly constructed and they had a long-term plan to clear payroll and take their lumps in the short-term, they did that too.

In 2022, with the team playing poorly and having fallen into last place in the AL East, it looked as if they were going to deal most of their pending free agent veterans. They did move Vazquez and Jake Diekman. Apart from that, they kept J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi and Rich Hill. They even added Hosmer after the Padres needed to get him off the team when he rejected their attempt to trade him as part of the deal for Soto.

.@45PedroMartinez comments on the @RedSox's future following MLB's trade deadline today: "I just don't see where the path is leading for the Red Sox, to be honest." #MLBonTBS pic.twitter.com/4USo7dEFOW

— TurnerSportsPR (@TurnerSportsPR) August 3, 2022

Only three games out of a wild-card spot, the Red Sox could have made an argument either way — keeping their players or cleaning house. They chose the middle ground presumably to keep the fans relatively interested and with the minuscule chance that they make the playoffs and hope for a hot streak. When betting on them, it is beneficial to think about them in that context: not good, not terrible, competitive enough.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins boosted their bullpen with Jorge Lopez from the Baltimore Orioles and Michael Fulmer from the Detroit Tigers. They also improved their starting rotation with Tyler Mahle from the Cincinnati Reds. The AL Central is looking like a “war of attrition.” It is confounding that the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox did so little with the White Sox settling for Diekman and keeping with the status quo.

Middling Moves and Standing Pat

Washington Nationals

Branch Rickey supposedly told Ralph Kiner when he traded him that the Pittsburgh Pirates could finish last with him and finish last without him. The Nationals are in a full-blown rebuild looking like an expansion team. Expansion teams lose a lot of games, but to be fair, how much worse can the Nationals be? In fact, they might even win a few more games than they would have had they just kept Soto.

Bettors should not automatically discount the teams who traded star players and veteran contributors away. Soto and Bell are gone. The young players — plus a presumably unhappy Luke Voit — will be trying harder than veteran players are obligated to for a team that is set to lose 110 games. They’re playing for jobs. Voit is under team control through 2024, but it makes little sense for the Nationals to keep him past this year. He’ll be 32 in February and is set to be paid about $7 million in 2023. He’ll be showcasing himself to contenders for next year, so his effort will be there.

Chicago Cubs

Jed Hoyer failing to trade Willson Contreras goes beyond egregious and into incompetence. A free agent at season’s end, not trading Contreras will get them little more than a middling draft pick.

How does this impact betting?

There is always a chance that a disgruntled Contreras could go into a funk with the Cubs and look to run out the clock on his free agent year without getting injured. He could also play for his own statistics which is not a positive for the team, but could benefit those looking at his future wagers.

New York Mets/Atlanta Braves/Philadelphia Phillies

The Mets’ problem in trying to acquire reinforcements stemmed from the Nationals not wanting to trade their players within the division without a dramatic overpay and the team being top heavy in prospects with few lower level up-and-comers that could attract attention.

They settled for fill-in pieces with Daniel Vogelbach, Darin Ruf, Tyler Naquin and Mychal Givens.

That does not necessarily mean the moves were bad. Though their catching has been atrocious offensively, there is something to be said for not messing with the pitching staff when they’re comfortable with the Mets’ light-hitting backstops. The DH combination of Vogelbach from the left and Ruf from the right inspires memories of the devastating 1980s Orioles platoon of Gary Roenicke and John Lowenstein. Neither was supremely impressive on their own, but combined they were an MVP contender. There is a viable argument that as well as the Mets have played and with Jacob deGrom, Trevor May and James McCann returning from injury, it was preferable not to mess with the clubhouse chemistry and make targeted additions instead of the big score.

The Braves acquired Jake Odorizzi from the Astros for Smith. Odorizzi is a back-end starter. They got Raisel Iglesias from the Los Angeles Angels, but Iglesias is homer-prone. And they acquired Robbie Grossman from the Tigers. Nothing earth shattering.

The Phillies made negligible maneuvers getting Noah Syndergaard, David Robertson and Edmundo Sosa. These make the team better in the moment, but it’s more style points than substance and not much for bettors to think about one way or the other.

The Braves and Mets basically held serve and the Phillies are targeting a wild-card spot. For bettors, it might be wiser to consider the schedules late in the season and the Mets have a weaker September schedule than the Braves do.