Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction: Kansas City Predicted to Win Divisional Round Game [2025]

NFL action continues on Saturday at 4:30PM ET as the Houston Texans look to defy the odds against the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model (see Dimers Pro for full access) predicts the Chiefs as the most likely winner of today's game.

"Our team has used the latest data to run 10,000 simulations of Saturday's Houston-Kansas City game," said Dimers' Chief Content Officer, Nick Slade.

"By incorporating recent updates and various other inputs, we estimate that the Chiefs are more likely to win, while the Texans have a lower chance of victory."

This updated Texans vs. Chiefs betting preview builds on my early Texans vs. Chiefs prediction that I released at the start of the week.

For expanded analysis of today’s game, including the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Texans vs. Chiefs predictions page.

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Texans vs. Chiefs Game-Day Updates and Essential Details

Saturday's game between the Chiefs and Texans at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled to start at 4:30PM ET.

• Who: Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
• Date: Saturday, January 18, 2025
• Time: 4:30PM ET/1:30PM PT
• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
• Tickets: Get tickets for the game on Ticketmaster
• Merchandise: Buy Chiefs and Texans gear at Fanatics

Dimers.com's in-depth preview of this week's Texans vs. Chiefs matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Houston vs. Kansas City picks, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

Texans vs. Chiefs Predictions

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's NFL matchup between the Texans and Chiefs 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Chiefs a 79% chance of beating the Texans. Our predicted final score has the Chiefs winning 23-16.

According to our model, the Texans (+9.5) have a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the 41.5-point over/under has a 55% chance of staying under.

Texans vs. Chiefs Odds

We have sourced the best betting odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Texans	Chiefs
Spread	+9.5 (-110)	-9.5 (-110)
Moneyline	+410	-550
Total	o41.5 (-110)	u41.5 (-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Texans vs. Chiefs Picks

Our model's biggest edge in today's Texans vs. Chiefs matchup is on the spread.

Our expert predictions, aligned with the best odds, reveal the best NFL picks for every game throughout the season.

Unlimited access to our complete suite of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Texans vs. Chiefs TD Scorers

Who will score the first touchdown in Texans vs. Chiefs?

According to our model, Houston's Nico Collins is most likely to score the first touchdown in Texans vs. Chiefs.

Our projections give Collins an 11.1% chance of scoring the first TD at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, while the Texans WR is a 44.4% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.

First Touchdown Scorer Predictions

Houston Texans

Player	First TD Probability
Nico Collins	11.1%
Joe Mixon	8.5%
Dalton Schultz	6.4%

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	First TD Probability
Isiah Pacheco	9.0%
Kareem Hunt	8.2%
Travis Kelce	8.0%

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions

Houston Texans

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Nico Collins	44.4%
Joe Mixon	36.1%
Dalton Schultz	27.6%

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Isiah Pacheco	36.1%
Kareem Hunt	34.2%
Travis Kelce	33.2%

Texans vs Chiefs Player Props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Texans and Chiefs. For detailed projections, join Dimers Pro.

Already a Dimers Pro member? Head to our Texans-Chiefs page now to access every player prop projection.

Texans vs. Chiefs Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Texans' C.J. Stroud is projected to throw for fewer yards than the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes.

Texans Rushing

Joe Mixon, C.J. Stroud and Dameon Pierce are projected to be the leading rushers for the Texans.

Player	Position
Joe Mixon	RB
C.J. Stroud	QB
Dameon Pierce	RB

Chiefs Rushing

Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt and Patrick Mahomes are expected to lead the Chiefs in rushing yards.

Player	Position
Isiah Pacheco	RB
Kareem Hunt	RB
Patrick Mahomes	QB

Texans Receiving

Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, John Metchie, Joe Mixon and Robert Woods are projected to top the receiving yards for the Texans.

Player	Position
Nico Collins	WR
Dalton Schultz	TE
John Metchie	WR
Joe Mixon	RB
Robert Woods	WR

Chiefs Receiving

Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, DeAndre Hopkins and Noah Gray are projected to lead the Chiefs in receiving yards.

Player	Position
Travis Kelce	TE
Xavier Worthy	WR
Hollywood Brown	WR
DeAndre Hopkins	WR
Noah Gray	TE

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Conclusion

We predict the Chiefs, with a 79% win probability, will likely beat the Texans on Saturday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Texans vs. Chiefs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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