Houston Texans 2022 Win Total Prediction, Computer Picks and Super Bowl Odds

The 2022 NFL season is firmly on the horizon and over the coming weeks the Dimers crew will break down the chances of each and every team, all vying for Super Bowl 57 glory in Glendale, Arizona come February.

Let's take a look at the key factors to consider when betting on the Houston Texans in the 2022 NFL season.

The Texans were one of the worst teams in football last season, but they were a bit more competitive than people expected. Under new head coach Lovie Smith, the team will look to continue moving in the right direction.

Houston Texans Win Total Prediction, Computer Picks and Super Bowl Odds

Houston Texans

• 2021 Record: 4-13, 3rd place AFC South (missed playoffs) 
• 2021 ATS: 8-9
• Key off-season losses: Deshaun Watson QB, Justin Reid S, David Johnson RB, Jordan Akins TE, Tyrod Taylor QB
• Key off-season additions: Derek Stingley Jr. CB, Marlon Mack RB, Dameon Pierce RB, Kenyon Green OL, Jalen Pitre S, M.J. Stewart S, Mario Addison DE, Christian Harris LB, John Metchie III WR

Houston Texans 2022 Win Total - 4.5

As Deshaun Watson was inactive for every game last year, the Texans rolled out then-rookie Davis Mills for 11 starts and Tyrod Taylor for half a dozen. Mills did show some flashes and threw for 16 touchdowns but was picked off 10 times. It appears as though he will top the depth chart heading into the preseason opener, and it does look like he'll have a legitimate chance to show Houston's decision makers that he can be the guy.  

Primeiro TD do QB calouro David Mills! TD Texans! #NFLBrasil pic.twitter.com/OGI1biLhY7

— NFL Brasil (@NFLBrasil) September 19, 2021

Former Kansas City Chiefs general manager Scott Pioli recently told NFL Network that the second-year quarterback he's most intrigued by is Mills.

“As I watch him, there's a lot of people down [there] that are quietly excited about this player and a number of people that I know and I saw with my own eyes who really liked him coming out," Pioli said. 

The backfield has a new look with former Colts running back Marlon Mack and rookie Dameon Pierce pushing Rex Burkhead for significant touches. Top wideout Brandin Cooks was re-signed for two years, but don’t be surprised if he’s traded midseason. 

Defensively, Houston’s pass rush is far from scary and totaled only 32 sacks last year. The secondary lost Justin Reid but there’s a lot of hype surrounding rookie corner Derek Stingley Jr. The Texans are also counting on big things from fellow rookie Jalen Pitre. 

PICK: Over 4.5 wins

DimersBOT: In our model's 10,000 simulations of the upcoming NFL season, the Texans averaged 4.73 wins per year. Perhaps that makes the Over 4.5 a solid bet this year, but DimersBOT also has Houston as the worst team in the NFL this season. Tread carefully. 

On the Hot Seat - Nick Caserio, GM

It wouldn’t be fair to put anyone in Houston on the hot seat after the Watson situation and absolute rebuild. But keep an eye on the roster Nick Caserio builds over the next few years. He’s only been with the Texans for about a year and a half after spending 20 seasons with the New England Patriots and helping win six Super Bowls.   

Houston Texans general manager Nick Caserio says the “disguise element” of coach Lovie Smith’s defense has been exemplary during offseason workouts. https://t.co/IkERaWCpsO

— The Texans Wire (@TheTexansWire) June 15, 2022

Houston Texans Super Bowl 57 Chances

It will be many moons before a Super Bowl wager on the Texans is recommended. If Houston can hit on some of its top draft picks and lure some free agents, perhaps there will be some value down the road. 

DimersBOT: Not this season. There isn't a team in the league that is projected to be worse than Houston this year, according to DimersBOT...not even the God Damn Jets. 

Houston Texans 2022 Schedule 

• September 11, 2022 - vs. Indianapolis Colts
• September 18, 2022 - at Denver Broncos
• September 25, 2022 - at Chicago Bears
• October 2, 2022 - Los Angeles Chargers
• October 9, 2022 - at Jacksonville Jaguars
• October 23, 2022 - at Las Vegas Raiders
• October 30, 2022 - Tennessee Titans
• November 3, 2022 - Philadelphia Eagles
• November 13, 2022 - at New York Giants
• November 20, 2022 - Washington Commanders
• November 27, 2022 - at Miami Dolphins
• December 4, 2022 - Cleveland Browns
• December 11, 2022 - at Dallas Cowboys
• December 18, 2022 - Kansas City Chiefs
• December 24, 2023 - at Tennessee Titans
• January 1, 2023 - Jacksonville Jaguars
• January 8, 2023 - at Indianapolis Colts