Hot Dog Eating Contest Best Bets - July 4, 2023

It's that time of year again! Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest returns. Will Joey Chestnut set a new world record? Will Miki Sudo win the women's side again? Who else could challenge for the top prize? We break down the best bets to make on the Hot Dog Eating contest on the 4th of July this year!

Bet #1: Joey Chestnut Over 72.5 Hot Dogs Eaten (-115)

Everyone knows Joey Chestnut is the man to beat in this contest. Chestnut has won seven straight events at Nathan's and 15 of the last 16. But it's not just that he is so much better than his competition, it's that he is constantly striving to out-do himself. Chestnut has surpassed 70 total dogs eaten in six of his last seven contests, and has eaten 75 or more dogs in two of the last three years.

While we like Joey Chestnut in other ways as well, this feels like one of the best bets on the board. Take it and run!

Bet #2: Joey Chestnut -11.5 Hot Dogs vs. Geoffrey Esper (-120)

Chestnut's primary competition is Geoffrey Esper, if you can even call him "competition". At a glance, you wouldn't be able to tell that Esper is a competitive eater, as he looks more like a personal trainer or a bodyguard. But Esper has the stuff to keep up here, as he has beaten Chestnut head to head once before, although not with hot dogs, but with mini donuts.

Esper ate 47.5 hot dogs last year at this event. Although he is the second ranked eater in the world, he hasn't proven that he can be a legitimate threat. And if you ask him, he's fine with that. He has been quoted saying "this is Joey's event" and that "it would have been even larger" of a margin if not for unforeseen circumstances last year. Chestnut's line is set at 72.5 dogs, Esper's is set at 50.5.  That would imply a 22.5-dog difference, much greater than the 11.5-dog spread that you can bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Bet #3: Joey Chestnut to Set a New Personal Record (+285)

Brace yourselves: this is where we get emotional. Chestnut has something to prove this year. Not to the fans, or to any of his competitors, but to himself. Last year he won by eating 63 hot dogs, his lowest total in years. But it wasn't a normal environment - Chestnut had to ward off a protestor who stormed the stage in the middle of the event. In hindsight, 63 was wildly impressive, and it likely took 10 dogs off his total at least.

Not only did he have to deal with protestors, but Chestnut was dealing with physical and emotional turmoil as well. His mother passed away weeks before the contest last year and his leg was in a boot. Given time to heal, and barring any other surprises, we expect Chestnut to truly be at his best this time around. We expect a new record.

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