Home Run Predictions, Props & Parlay for MLB Wednesday [6/28/2023]

We've locked in two sluggers and generated another MLB Home Run Parlay for Wednesday, June 28. Tonight's parlay features players from the Reds vs. Orioles and Rays vs. D-Backs games as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

MORE: Wednesday's Top Five MLB Trends

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MLB +4493 Home Run Parlay For Wednesday 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Jake Fraley 1+ HR	+775
Jose Siri 1+ HR	+425

BEST BETS: Wednesday's Best Bets from the MLB Slate - June 28, 2023

Wednesday MLB Parlay Analysis

Reds vs. Orioles 7:05PM ET

LEG 1: Jake Fraley 1+ HR (+775) with BetMGM

Starting off our parlay is a prop with some of the longest odds we've ever tailed in this column, but we're getting a great edge and we like the history. Jake Fraley of the Cincinnati Reds gets a 24% probability from our model to hit a home run against the Orioles, and that comes with a significant 13% edge in his odds of +775 at BetMGM. He just edges out rookie phenom Elly De La Cruz in probability, but the edge we get with Fraley is substantial.

He'll open this game against O's starter Kyle Gibson (4.30 ERA). He's allowed eight home runs this year, but Gibson has historically allowed a home run total in the mid-20s when pitching a full season. His home run-relevant metrics represent a middle-of-the-pack pitcher; while he doesn't scrape the bottom of the league in any category, he doesn't eclipse the halfway mark in any either.

We're getting Fraley in great form as he's smacked 6 of his 11 home runs in June, including a recent three-game streak with a bomb. He has a pair of home runs in five career plate appearances against Gibson, plus we are getting a solid boost with the weather in Camden Yards according to Ballpark Pal, with the wind heading out to right-center field, the spot where Fraley conveniently hits almost all of his homers.

⚾️ Reds vs. Orioles Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Reds vs. Orioles

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Rays vs. D-Backs 9:40PM ET

LEG 2: Jose Siri 1+ HR (+425) with BetMGM

Another hitter in excellent form, we head to one of the late games to close out our parlay and take Jose Siri of the Tampa Bay Rays. Siri gets a hefty 31% probability from our model to give us an equally hefty 12% edge in his odds of +425. He's hitting a career mark in his OPS (on-base plus slugging) at .855 and has an excellent power stroke, with his xSLG, Barrel % and Max Exit Velocity all in the top 10th percentile of the entire league. He's hit three home runs in his last four games, including back-to-back nights.

Siri will face the D-Backs' Zach Davies, who has been smacked around this year. He gave up a pair of home runs in his first two starts before missing virtually all of April and May with an oblique strain. Since returning, he's allowed just one home run but has been pegged for 23 ERs in five June starts. Aside from limiting opposing Barrels (81st percentile), he's incredibly vulnerable, and he should have difficulty navigating this dangerous Rays lineup. Also working in our favor is Arizona's bullpen which has allowed the eighth-most (35) homers in the league.

⚾️ Rays vs. D-Backs Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Rays vs. D-Backs

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MLB +4493 Home Run Parlay Wednesday, June 21, 2023

1️⃣ Jake Fraley 1+ HR
2️⃣ Jose Siri 1+ HR

Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on for every baseball game on Wednesday via our MLB Bet Hub, where we deliver you MLB predictions, suggested bets and MLB props, or check out the MLB Betting News section.

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

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