Home Run Predictions, Props & Parlay for MLB Wednesday [6/21/2023]

We've locked in two sluggers and generated another MLB Home Run Parlay for Wednesday, June 21. Tonight's parlay features players from the Rangers vs. White Sox and Braves vs. Phillies games as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

MORE: Wednesday's Top Five MLB Trends

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MLB +2525 Home Run Parlay For Wednesday 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Austin Riley 1+ HR	+525
Corey Seager 1+ HR	+320

BEST BETS: Wednesday's Best Bets from Every Sport - June 21, 2023

Wednesday MLB Parlay Analysis

Braves vs. Phillies 6:40M ET

LEG 1: Austin Riley 1+ HR (+525) with BetMGM

The first game of the night slate starts our home run parlay as we lock in Austin Riley of the Braves to go yard. Riley has 12 homers this year but just two in June. He homered last night with an absolute nuke off of Ranger Suarez. He has one of the highest home run probabilities tonight from our model at 27.4% and that comes with a 12% edge in the odds, giving us great value for a guy with a probability this high and whose odds imply a 16% chance.

He opens up this game against Phillies starter Aaron Nola, who is having a strange season. His metrics are strong but he's pitching to a middle-of-the-pack 4.66 ERA with 15 home runs allowed (tied for fifth-most in the league); he gave up 19 all of last year in twice as many starts. Even more, he's allowed a home run in his last *eleven* starts and has just two games this year without.

Riley has a lifetime .417 batting average against Nola, and a whopping five home runs in 48 career at-bats. He's got Nola figured out and we still get great value in his odds.

⚾️ Braves vs. Phillies Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Braves vs. Phillies

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Rangers vs. White Sox 8:10PM ET

LEG 2: Corey Seager 1+ HR (+320) with BetMGM

We're looking for a Texas-sized Seager-bomb as the Rangers head to the Windy City of Chicago. Seager has a 27% chance to hit a home run from our model and gets a modest 4% edge in his odds. He's hit 10 home runs this year, which isn't a mindblowing number, however, he missed about a month of time between April and May. Since returning on May 17th, he's slugged nine home runs. In his latest hot stretch, he hit four in eight games. It's been three games since his last, but there's plenty in his favor tonight.

For starters, we look to make use of the city's namesake as the weather is giving a 14% boost to home run balls tonight according to Ballpark Pal. Our model factors weather into its projections and this correlates well with what DimersBOT has already identified.

As far as a pitching matchup, few can be better than this one for Seager. Sox starter Michael Kopech has allowed 15 home runs this year (tied for fifth-most in MLB) and he's yet to face this lethal Rangers lineup. Kopech has a mean fastball, but the problem with fastballs is if you can get ahold of one, you can send it on a rope. He's also in the bottom 2% of the league in Barrel %, which is the perfect combination of launch angle and exit velocity, per Statcast. Seager is in the 98th percentile in the same category. Stick, meet piñata.

⚾️ Rangers vs. White Sox Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Rangers vs. White Sox

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MLB +2525 Home Run Parlay Wednesday, June 21, 2023

1️⃣ Austin Riley 1+ HR
2️⃣ Corey Seager 1+ HR

Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on for every baseball game on Wednesday via our MLB Bet Hub, where we deliver you MLB predictions, suggested bets and MLB props, or check out the MLB Betting News section.

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

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