Home Run Predictions, Props and Parlay for MLB Tuesday [7/4/2023]

Dinger Tuesday and July 4 combine forces for a mega MLB Home Run Parlay. Today's parlay features players from the Cardinals vs. Marlins and Blue Jays vs. White Sox games as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

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+4960 MLB Home Run Parlay For Tuesday

Tuesday MLB Parlay Analysis

Cardinals vs. Marlins - 1:10PM EST

LEG 1: Jean Segura 1+ HR (+1000) with DraftKings

Starting Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright is waning. It was bound to happen for the 41-year-old who has endured a rough patch of form, losing five of his last six starts, including being pulled on June 29 after 1.2 IP against the Astros. The ace has allowed five home runs in his last four starts and our model has identified some more pain coming his way against the Marlins outfit.

Jean Segura is one Miami slugger who could stand to profit at big odds, already boasting a career .400 avg with one home run against Wainwright from a healthy sample size of 25 ABs. While Segura has only hit two dingers this season - explaining the hefty odds on offer - those two homers came against breaking balls; a ball type that the Cardinals' pitcher relies upon heavily this season, accounting for around a third of his balls. Our model detects a 7.6% edge on Segura to add another career home run to his tally vs. Wainwright.

⚾️ Cardinals vs. Marlins Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Cardinals vs. Marlins

Blue Jays vs. White Sox - 8:10PM EST

LEG 2: Luis Robert 1+ HR (+360) with DraftKings

With a probability rating of 34% and an edge against the sportsbook odds of 12.2%, our home run predictor can't get enough of Luis Robert Jr. to continue his hot hitting form tonight against the Blue Jays. Coming up against Robert Jr. on the mound will be Chris Bassit; a man who relies heavily upon fastballs and breaking balls, two types of balls that the White Sox hitter has been crushing this season with 24 home runs on the season, split between the two types of balls that Bassit deals. 

⚾️ Blue Jays vs. White Sox Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Blue Jays vs. White Sox

Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on for every baseball game on Tuesday via our MLB Bet Hub, where we deliver you MLB predictions, suggested bets and MLB props, or check out the MLB Betting News section.

MLB Home Run Parlay Tuesday, July 4, 2023

1️⃣ Jean Segura 1+ HR
2️⃣ Luis Robert Jr. 1+ HR

Note: Always confirm lineups before placing bets

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

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