Home Run Predictions, Props & Parlay for MLB Tuesday [6/20/2023]

It's Dinger Tuesday and we're looking to dine out with our MLB Home Run Parlay for Tuesday, June 20. Tonight's parlay features players from the Braves vs. Phillies and Mets vs. Astros games as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

MORE: Dinger Tuesday Best Bets [6/20/23]

If you haven't already, sign up for BetMGM➡️here⬅️ where new users can bet this parlay and get up to $1,000 back in bonus bets if it loses. It is by far the best promo out there to bet on baseball this summer. For tonight's parlay, you will find slightly better odds at DraftKings (as of this writing). You should always shop around and double-check for the best odds, so having access to multiple books is crucial. Let's dive in.

+2925 MLB Home Run Parlay For Tuesday

Note: This parlay original featured Luis Robert, who has since been ruled out of the starting lineup, instead of Matt Olson.

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Matt Olson 1+ HR	+450
Pete Alonso 1+ HR	+450

RELATED: Best Bets for Today in All Sports

Tuesday MLB Parlay Analysis

Braves vs. Phillies - 6:40PM EST

LEG 1: Matt Olson 1+ HR (+450) with DraftKings

We are tasking our guy Matt Olson to hit a bomb for us on this fine DInger Tuesday. A great addition to this Braves quad, he's been slugging for Atlanta since he joined the team. Olson gets a sweet 27% probability to hit a bomb from our model, giving us a solid 9% edge in the odds, which is significant in a home run prop. These are also some of the best odds we've seen on Olson all season. He's the second most-likely hitter in this matchup and would be in our HR Round Robin if not for Kyle Schwarber from the same game.

Olson has 20 home runs this season, tied for 4th in the league with the aforementioned Kyle Schwarber. After a slow start to June as far as homers are concerned, he's slugged three homers in his last eight games, including two in the past four days. He'll face Phillies' starter Ranger Suarez who has allowed two home runs in seven starts this year. That's not the usual volume we like to lean on, but he's not the type of pitcher you shy away from either, with his 49th percentile in HardHit%. He doesn't miss bats well so that bodes well for contact from Olson. The weather is in our favor tonight with a breeze heading out and this is a great play on value, so we like everything in play for Olson in this one.

⚾️ Braves vs. Phillies Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Braves vs. Phillies

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Mets vs. Astros - 8:10PM EST

LEG 2: Pete Alonso 1+ HR (+450) with DraftKings

Our second slugger of the night has just recently made his return to the diamond. Pete Alonso slugged his way to 22 home runs before hitting the 10-day IL after taking a 97-mph fastball from Charlie Morton off his left wrist. He missed the minimum amount of time and returned to the lineup this past Sunday. Alonso gets a 31% probability from our model to go along with a 12.6% edge in the odds, the highest of any player in this game, which is also our Dinger Tuesday matchup of the week.

Before his IL stint, Alonso was the league leader in home runs with 22. Shohei Ohtani seized the opportunity to hit what seemed like 100 home runs in the past week to take the MLB lead with 24. No disrespect to Ohtani, the all-but-guaranteed AL MVP, but Pete was the HR leader for a reason. Without those 10 days of absence, his pace suggests he'd be at worst tied with Ohtani right now, as he hasn't gone more than a week without a home run so far this season, including two in his last three games before the HBP.

RELATED: Best MLB Props and +7168 Parlay - Tuesday, June 20

He'll head to bat against Framber Valdez, who is a fascinating pitcher. Not only because he can be lights out, but he has a 2.27 ERA despite his glaring flaws in home run metrics. He's so much better than his metrics suggest, but his strength lies in his strikeout stuff and ability to limit walks. He's in the bottom 7th percentile in Exit Velocity, 21% in HardHit% and right in the middle of the league in Barrel %, per Statcast. Lock in Polar Pete for our second leg and let's sit back and enjoy Dinger Tuesday.

⚾️ Mets vs. Astros Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Mets vs. Astros

Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on for every baseball game on Tuesday via our MLB Bet Hub, where we deliver you MLB predictions, suggested bets and MLB props, or check out the MLB Betting News section.

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MLB Home Run Parlay Tuesday, June 20, 2023

1️⃣ Matt Olson 1+ HR
2️⃣ Pete Alonso 1+ HR

Note: Always confirm lineups before placing bets

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

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