Home Run Predictions, Props and Parlay for MLB Thursday [7/6/2023]

There's plenty of games to choose from and it's time to once again bet some home runs! We're attacking a pair of games with our MLB Home Run Parlay for Thursday, July 6. Today's parlay features players from the Phillies vs. Rays and Mets vs. Diamondbacks games as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

BEST BETS: Thursday's Best Bets From Every Sport - July 6, 2023

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*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

MLB +2200 Home Run Parlay For Thursday 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Nick Castellanos 1+ HR	+475
Pete Alonso 1+ HR	+300

Thursday MLB Parlay Analysis

Phillies vs. Rays, 6:40PM ET

LEG 1: Nick Castellanos 1+ HR (+475) with FanDuel

Did anything tragic happen today?

Jokes aside, Castellanos has a penchant for hitting a bomb when there is some catastrophic news taking place. He also has a penchant for hitting home runs anytime, anywhere. And tonight, he absolutely loves his matchup and will be looking to feast.

Castellanos has faced Rays started Shawn Armstrong six times in his career, and has totaled four hits and a whopping two home runs! DimersBOT is all over it as well, marking Castellanos down as a 20.0% probability to hit a dinger, good for a 2.6% edge on his +475 odds. Take it and run!

⚾️ Phillies vs. Rays Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Phillies vs. Rays

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Mets vs. Diamondbacks, 9:40PM ET

LEG 2: Pete Alonso 1+ HR (+300) with FanDuel

And for our second leg, we turn to one of the most steady hitters in all of baseball: Pete Alonso.

Tonight, Alonso faces Dbacks starter Ryne Nelson, who has given up a lot of bombs lately. Nelson has been homered against in three of his last four starts, and a total of 11 times already this season. He has never faced Pete Alonso before, but this is one of those cases where we believe the unfamiliarity benefits the elite hitter more than the average pitcher.

DimersBOT loves Alonso tonight, as this is one of our highest probability plays all evening. Alonso has a 31.2% probability of hitting a home run, good for a massive 6.2% edge at his +300 odds. Add it to the parlay, and we end up with a +2200 Home Run Parlay tonight.

⚾️ Mets vs. Diamondbacks Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Mets vs. Diamondbacks

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MORE: Thursday's Top MLB Prop Picks and Lotto Parlay

MLB +2200 Home Run Parlay Thursday, July 6, 2023

1️⃣ Pete Alonso - 1+ HR
2️⃣ Nick Castellanos - 1+ HR

Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on for every baseball game on Thursday via our MLB Bet Hub, where we deliver you MLB predictions, suggested bets and MLB props, or check out the MLB Betting News section.

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.