Home Run Predictions, Props & Parlay for MLB Thursday [6/29/2023]

There are only eight MLB games in Thursday's evening slate but that's no reason to keep us from betting on home runs! We're attacking a pair of games with our MLB Home Run Parlay for Thursday, June 29. Today's parlay features players from the Astros vs. Cardinals and Dodgers vs. Rockies games as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

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*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

MLB +2032 Home Run Parlay For Thursday 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Nolan Gorman 1+ HR	+420
J.D. Martinez 1+ HR	+330

Thursday MLB Parlay Analysis

Astros vs. Cardinals, 7:15PM ET

LEG 1: Nolan Gorman 1+ HR (+420) with FanDuel

We've got a lean MLB slate on today with half of the games seeing first pitch in the early window. That gives us a narrow field to pick our home run props from, but we've still found value in two guys who have hit a bunch of home runs.

We start things off with Nolan Gorman of the Cardinals as the Birds defend their home turf against the Astros. Gorman gets a 31% chance from our model, and that comes with a 14% edge in the odds. He's whacked 15 home runs this year, nearly surpassing his season total of 14 in from last year. He only played 89 games last year and having already reached 70 games played, he should easily cruise to 25 home runs this year. He's got just two in June, his quietest month of the season, but perhaps this pitching matchup is what he needs.

J.P. France takes the mound for the Astros having allowed nine home runs in as many starts this year. He's got just two starts where he kept the ball in the park. None of his pitching metrics are particularly flashy and although Busch Stadium isn't what you'd call a hitter's park, it hasn't affected Gorman who's hit nine of his home runs at home this year.

⚾️ Astros vs. Cardinals Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Astros vs. Cardinals

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Dodgers vs. Rockies, 8:40PM ET

LEG 2: J.D. Martinez 1+ HR (+330) with FanDuel

In the midst of a resurgent year, J.D. Martinez is making the most of his one-year deal with the Dodgers. He's mashed 18 homers this year, already passing his full-season total of 16 from 2022, and is actually right on pace to match his career-high of 43 from 2018. He opened June in the middle of a tear, hammering six home runs in eight games, before hitting a quiet stretch over the last two weeks. He returned to the home run show on Tuesday night with a pair of dingers in Coors Field, where we return for this one.

Chase Anderson will toe the rubber for the Rockies and while he doesn't profile as an extreme home run pitcher, he's been bitten badly by the home run bug. After four clean starts to open the season, he's allowed a home run in six straight starts, and at least two in four of them. In his last two starts at Coors Field, he's given up 2 and 3 HRs, respectively. We get the natural boost granted by the altitude, plus the Rockies bullpen has allowed 35 homers this season, so if Anderson doesn't give it up, we like our chances late into the game as well.

Our model gives Martinez a huge 40% probability to hit a home run, making his odds of +310 a bargain as they come with nearly a 16% edge.

⚾️ Dodgers vs. Rockies Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Dodgers vs. Rockies

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MORE: Thursday's Top MLB Prop Picks and Lotto Parlay

MLB +2032 Home Run Parlay Thursday, June 29, 2023

1️⃣ Nolan Gorman - 1+ HR
2️⃣ J.D. Martinez - 1+ HR

Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on for every baseball game on Thursday via our MLB Bet Hub, where we deliver you MLB predictions, suggested bets and MLB props, or check out the MLB Betting News section.

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