Home Run Predictions, Props & Parlay for MLB Thursday [6/22/2023]

There are only eight MLB games on today but that's no reason to keep us from betting on home runs! We're attacking the night slate with our MLB Home Run Parlay for Thursday, June 22. Today's parlay features players from the Pirates vs. Marlins and Mariners vs. Yankees games as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

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*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

MLB +4400 Home Run Parlay For Thursday 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Jesús Sánchez 1+ HR	+650
Julio Rodríguez 1+ HR	+500

Thursday MLB Parlay Analysis

Pirates vs. Marlins, 6:40PM ET

LEG 1: Jesús Sánchez 1+ HR (+650) with DraftKings

We've got a lean MLB slate on today with half of the games seeing first pitch in the 1PM window. That gives us a narrow lens to pick our home urn props for tonight which could work well in our favor.

Jesús Sánchez has not only the highest edge out of any home run prop on tonight's board but the highest of any prop, period. He gets a massive 15% edge in his odds of +650, with our model's 28% probability implying odds of closer to +300. That is an absolutely enormous discrepancy that we have to capitalize on. Teammate Jorge Soler has nearly the same edge, but his higher probability has landed him in our Round Robin Parlay.

Sánchez has six home runs this year, which isn't a lot, but he has been A) hitting the ball well, and B) slowly heating up in the HR department. He hit one in April, two in May (while missing two weeks) and three in June. He's finding his power stroke.

He faces the Pirates' Mitch Keller who is having the best season of his career, but has still allowed 10 HR this year (12.8 expected). It's not as juicy of a matchup as we like, but Keller does sit in the bottom 17th percentile in Barrel %, an area where Sánchez is also hitting a career mark.

⚾️ Pirates vs. Marlins Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Pirates vs. Marlins

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Mariners vs. Yankees, 7:05PM ET

LEG 2: Julio Rodríguez 1+ HR (+500) with DraftKings

We head to the Bronx for our second leg and task Mariners' young star Julio Rodríguez to hit a home run. J-Rod isn't hitting as well as his eye-raising rookie season, slashing just .239 so far, but he has all the power we're looking for in a home run hitter. If he can limit his penchant for chasing balls out of the zone, we like his chances to dong one tonight.

Speaking of chances, he gets a 23% chance from DimersBOT to go yard, and that will come with a 6.5% edge in the odds. He hit five home runs in each of May and April and has mustered just a pair so far in June. He's right on last year's pace of 28 for the season and has a pretty favorable matchup tonight.

Doming Germán draws the start for the Yankees, and he's allowed 11 home runs this year, including his past four starts. J-Rod has faced German just once in his career, a game this season on May 29th. Julio took Germán deep on the first pitch he saw in the fourth inning. Germán is middling at best in home run metrics for ap itcher and we're hoping that Rodríguez can replicate his success from a few weeks ago.

⚾️ Mariners vs. Yankees Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Mariners vs. Yankees

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MORE: Thursday's Top MLB Prop Picks and Lotto Parlay

MLB +4400 Home Run Parlay Thursday, June 22, 2023

1️⃣ Jesús Sánchez - 1+ HR
2️⃣ Julio Rodríguez - 1+ HR

Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on for every baseball game on Thursday via our MLB Bet Hub, where we deliver you MLB predictions, suggested bets and MLB props, or check out the MLB Betting News section.

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