Home Run Predictions, Props & Parlay for MLB Saturday [6/17/2023]

Welcome to another day of big hits as we look to keep our hot streak rolling with our MLB Home Run Parlay for Saturday, June 17. Saturday's parlay features a pair of sluggers from the Guardians vs. Diamondbacks and Giants vs. Dodgers games as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

MORE: Our model's best bets across all sports today

If you haven't already, sign up for BetMGM➡️here⬅️where you can bet this HR parlay risk-free up to $1000. It is by far the best promo out there to bet on baseball this Summer. The best odds for today's parlay can be found on DraftKings, however.

MLB +3637 Home Run Parlay For Saturday 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Freddie Freeman 1+ HR	+550
Corbin Carroll 1+ HR	+475

Saturday MLB Parlay Analysis

Giants vs. Dodgers 9:40PM ET

LEG 1: Freddie Freeman 1+ HR (+550) with DraftKings

We're rocking with another late-night parlay, and not because we've got nothing better to do on Saturday night than wait around for a pair of dingers, but because we've got some great value on our hands. Former NL MVP Freddie Freeman takes the stage in the midst of a scorching season. He'd be the outright NL MVP favorite if not for Ronald Acuña Jr. and he could very well close that gap even further before the All-Star Break arrives.

Our model is giving Freddie a 22% chance to hit a home run, coupled with a 6.6% edge in the odds. Our fair price for Freeman would be closer to +375m giving us some visible value. Freeman has 13 home runs this season, with all three that he hit in June coming last week.

He's managed just four games without contact so far this month and he'll draw a pitching matchup with Alex Wood (4.80 ERA) who's been a middle-of-the-pack pitcher this year. He's allowed only three home runs in his eight starts but isn't pitching with any lights-out material. Freeman has a pair of career home runs off Wood in 31 at-bats, giving us some solid history to work with, plus we've got wind blowing out towards the fences in Dodger Stadium tonight, giving us a nice bump in home run potential.

⚾️ Giants vs. Dodgers Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Giants vs. Dodgers

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Guardians vs. Diamondbacks 10:10PM ET

LEG 2: Corbin Carroll 1+ HR (+475) with DraftKings

Leg number two will take us to the nightcap of Saturday's full slate as we lock in NL Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll to hit our second homer. Carroll is in a two-way race with recent call-up Elly De La Cruz of the Reds for NL ROY honors, and as long he doesn't get hurt and stays even remotely on his current pace, he should lock that up (currently -400). He's smashed 14 home runs this season, spraying them all over from left to right. He's already hit five in June after hitting just as many in all of May. 

He'll step up to the plate against Shane Bieber (3.29 ERA). Bieber was once one of the best pitchers in the league but has seen his metrics decline over the past few seasons. He's given up eight longballs this year, but with a little luck, as his expected home run total is 10. He's in the bottom 15% of the league in HardHit% and Average Exit Velocity, two categories in which Carroll shines. 

Carroll gets a 23% probability to hit a home run from our model and that comes with a slight 5% edge in the odds. He's an extremely talented young ballplayer and we're riding with him and our model's projections tonight. 

Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on for every baseball game on Saturday via our MLB Bet Hub, where we deliver you MLB predictions, suggested bets and MLB props, or check out the MLB Betting News section.

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MLB +3637 Home Run Parlay Saturday, June 17, 2023

1️⃣ Freddie Freeman 1+ HR
2️⃣ Corbin Carroll 1+ HR

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

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