Home Run Predictions, Props & Parlay for MLB Monday [6/19/2023]

A new week begins and we're looking to keep our hot form rolling after hitting two HR parlays last week with our MLB Home Run Parlay for Monday, June 19. Tonight's parlay features players from the Blue Jays vs. Marlins and Rangers vs. White Sox games as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

MORE: Monday's MLB Best Props and Parlay

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+3200 MLB Home Run Parlay For Monday

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Josh Jung 1+ HR	+500
Jorge Soler 1+ HR	+450

Monday MLB Parlay Analysis

Blue Jays vs. Marlins - 6:40PM EST

LEG 1: Jorge Soler 1+ HR (+450) with DraftKings

We kick things off with Jorge Soler of the Marlins down in Miami. Soler has been electric this year, hitting .260 with 20 home runs, tied for third on the leaderboard. Our model gives him a 26% chance to go yard, coupled with a healthy 8.5% edge in the odds. Our fair price would make him closer to +300, so you can see how much value you're getting on a guy with the third-most HRs in the league.

He's hit just one home run in the past week, but he has been making consistent contact. He'll step up to the plate against Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios who has allowed eight home runs this year, though his expected home run count says he should have 10, so he's been a little lucky. He had a quiet month of April but was lit up for six home runs in May. He's pitched decently well lately, only allowing a home run in one of his past three starts, but he's as vulnerable as anyone against a hitter with power like Soler, and it's hard to pass up on the edge in the odds for a slugger near the top of the leaderboard.

⚾️ Blue Jays vs. Marlins Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Blue Jays vs. Marlins

MORE: Today's Best Bets Across All Sports

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Rangers vs. White Sox - 8:10PM EST

LEG 2: Josh Jung 1+ HR (+500) with DraftKings

We're going back to our guy Josh Jung again. A stellar player, Jung leads all AL rookies with 14 home runs so far. He dinged six homers in each of April and May, but has just two so far in June. He's got serious power and exit velocity for a rookie and his pace matches up well with what our model is predicting tonight. Jung gets a 27% probability from our model with an even bigger +EV than Soler at 12%. 

We won't dive too much into his pitching matchup as Tanner Banks is getting a spot start, likely as an opener. He hasn't pitched more than 3 innings in a single game this year and has only thrown 3.2 total innings since April. What that does tell us though, is that Jung is likely to see the Chicago bullpen for most of this game, and they've allowed 35 home runs this season, the sixth-worst in the league among relief staff. Add to that the wind blowing out to right field in Chicago (giving us an 18% HR boost per Ballpark Pal), and we've got a great chance here.

⚾️ Rangers vs. White Sox Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Rangers vs. White Sox

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MLB Home Run Parlay Monday, June 19, 2023

1️⃣Jorge Soler 1+ HR
2️⃣Josh Jung 1+ HR

RELATED: Calling Our Shot's +517 MLB Parlay of the Day

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on for every baseball game on Monday via our MLB Bet Hub, where we deliver you MLB predictions, suggested bets and MLB props, or check out the MLB Betting News section.

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