Home Run Predictions, Props & Parlay for MLB Monday [6/5/2023]

A new week begins and we're looking to keep our hot form rolling, backing up our parlay cash yesterday with our MLB Home Run Parlay for Monday, June 5. Tonight's parlay features players from the Blue Jays vs. Astros game as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

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+2200 MLB Home Run Parlay For Monday

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Vladimir Guerrero Jr 1+ HR	+340
Kyle Tucker 1+ HR	+425

Monday MLB Parlay Analysis

Blue Jays vs. Astros - 7:10PM EST

LEG 1: Vladimir Guerrero Jr 1+ HR (+340) with BetMGM

A regular feature in this column, Vlad Jr makes his return to the home run parlay tonight in a home showdown with the Astros. He cooled off a bit in May as far as home runs are concerned, but he's riding a four-game hit streak and just hit a home run last night. He has nine home runs on the year, but this is a slugger who hit 32 and 48 homers in each of the past two seasons respectively. His current pace puts him behind the 32-mark, which suggests there should be some positive regression coming. This is further backed up by our model's massive 34.5% HR probability, the highest of the slate.

Rogers Centre is considered a top-10 hitter's park in baseball and he gets a solid pitching matchup to go along with it. Brandon Bielak will toe the rubber for the 'Stros and while he's been a fine pitcher this season (3.19 ERA), he has allowed six home runs through five May starts. His StatCast metrics paint a pitcher whose strongest trait is the whiff rate generated by his fastball, something that won't be a factor if Vladito yokes one. We're getting a substantial 13% +EV on this one so let's lock in Vlad for Leg #1.

MORE: Today's Best Bets Across All Sports

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LEG 2: Kyle Tucker 1+ HR (+425) with BetMGM

Sticking in the same game, we head to the other dugout and are looking for a Kyle Tucker home run. Like Vladdy, Tucker is behind his usual pace, having hit 30 home runs in back-to-back years. He's got seven so far, putting him on a rough pace of 21. Tucker gets a 23% chance from DimersBOT to go yard tonight, giving us a small edge in the odds on offer.

He'll face Blue Jays' starter Alek Manoah, who isn't someone we would have expected to be targeting this season, but he has not been that great. He's allowed ten home runs this year with a 5.46 ERA and is vulnerable to hard-hit balls and a high exit velocity. A struggling pitcher meets a batter due for a home run surge, giving us our second leg of the HR parlay.

⚾️ Blue Jays vs. Astros Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Blue Jays vs. Astros

Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on for every baseball game on Monday via our MLB Bet Hub, where we deliver you MLB predictions, suggested bets and MLB props, or check out the MLB Betting News section.

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MLB Home Run Parlay Monday, June 5, 2023

1️⃣ Vladimir Guerrero Jr 1+ HR
2️⃣ Kyle Tucker 1+ HR

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

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