Home Run Predictions, Props & Parlay for MLB Friday [6/30/23]

We've locked in two sluggers and generated another MLB Home Run Parlay for Friday, June 30. Tonight's parlay features players from the Marlins vs. Braves and Red Sox vs. Blue Jays games as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

MORE: Friday's +247 MLB Parlay from Calling Our Shot

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RELATED: Best Bets Today for All Sports - Friday, June 30

MLB +2775 Home Run Parlay For Friday 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Austin Riley 1+ HR	+380
Bo Bichette 1+ HR	+525

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

Friday MLB Parlay Analysis

Marlins vs. Braves 7:20PM ET

LEG 1: Austin Riley 1+ HR (+380) with BetMGM

Our man Riley got the job done for us last Friday in our HR parlay and our model is loving him again tonight. At the time of this writing, Riley has the highest edge out of any player on our HR prop board, with a 15% edge in his odds per our model, which is giving him a 36.7% chance to hit a homer tonight. 

Riley's taken a biiiit of a power dip this year after hitting 39 last season, but he's still hitting the ball hard and with consistency. He's up to 14 home runs this year with four in June. If he hits one tonight, he'll close out June with five home runs in each month of the season. That just feels right, doesn't it?

As far as his pitching matchup is concerned, Bryan Hoeing will toe the rubber for the Fish tonight. There's no history to go off of here as they've only faced each in twice, and Hoeing has only allowed 2 home runs this year, though he's been used primarily as a reliever with the occasional spot start so it's not the same sample size or usage as a traditional starter. He was knocked around by this lineup in his first game of the year, and it's worth noting that Miami's bullpen has given up 35 homers this year, so we should have plenty of opportunity for Riley to go yard tonight.

⚾️ Predictions for Marlins vs. Braves
📈 Marlins vs. Braves Betting Preview

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Red Sox vs. Blue Jays 7:07PM ET

LEG 2: Bo Bichette 1+ HR (+525) with BetMGM

We head to good ol' Canada for an AL East clash to get our second leg. Bo Bichette of the Blue Jays has been regularly favored by our model this year and we're backing him tonight. Bichette has the team lead with 14 home runs on the season, including three in June, though he is looking for his first since June 7. He's having the best year of his career in virtually any metric or stat category and our model gives him a  29% probability to go yard which gives us a nice 14% edge in the odds.

The Red Sox will send James Paxton to the mound. A Canadian native, James Paxton aka The Big Maple, has started eight games this year and allowed at least one home run in five of them, including his last two. He's on pace for his career high in home runs allowed (24). His strength lies in his strikeout rate, which Bichette can be susceptible to, but he's hitting too well not to trust him with the data we're given here.

Due to the weather in Toronto, we're seeing a slight HR boost of 5% from Ballpark Pal, with the biggest boost being out to left field where the majority of Bichette's home runs favor.

⚾️ Predictions for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
📈 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Betting Preview

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MLB +2775 Home Run Parlay Friday, June 30, 2023

1️⃣ Austin Riley 1+ HR
2️⃣ Bo Bichette 1+ HR

MORE: Top Five MLB Props and +12412 Lotto Parlay

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