Home Run Predictions, Props & Parlay for MLB Friday [6/16/23]

We've locked in two sluggers and generated another MLB Home Run Parlay for Friday, June 16. Tonight's parlay features players from the White Sox vs. Mariners and Phillies vs. Athletics games as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

MORE: Friday's +516 MLB Parlay from Calling Our Shot

If you haven't already, sign up for BetMGM➡️here⬅️where you can bet this HR parlay risk-free up to $1000, and score bonus bets every Wednesday and Saturday. It is by far the best promo out there to bet on baseball this Summer. For today's parlay, you will find the best odds on FanDuel, however.

RELATED: Best Bets Today for All Sports - Friday, June 16

MLB +3260 Home Run Parlay For Friday 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Bryce Harper 1+ HR	+500
Jarred Kelenic 1+ HR	+460

Friday MLB Parlay Analysis

Phillies vs. Athletics 9:40PM ET

LEG 1: Bryce Harper 1+ HR (+500) with FanDuel

Make yourself a nice pot of coffee or start throwing back the espresso martinis because we're staying up for a late-night pair of homers. Unless, of course, our guys go yard nice and early in their respective game, and there's nothing better than some quick cash. Let's get to it.

Bryce Harper gets leg number one in our parlay. In a loaded 15-game slate, it can be hard to narrow down the right HR hitters, but here's why we like Harper tonight. For starters, he gets a 25% probability to hit a home run from our model, the second-highest from the Phillies lineup behind Kyle Schwarber. The Schawr-bomb gets a spot in our Round Robin tonight, so we're slotting in Bryce for the two-leg parlay. That probability also gets us a nice 9% +EV in his odds, meaning he should actually be priced at +300 in this one.

He draws a pitching matchup with the A's JP Sears (4.15 ERA). When viewing his metrics, Sears doesn't leap off the page as a major home run pitcher, but his results say otherwise. He's tied for fifth in the league in home runs allowed with 14, and he's actually been lucky, given his xHR (expected) value of 16.  He's managed just three starts this year without allowing a home run and has done so in back-to-back outings. The cherry on top? The A's have the single-worst bullpen in the majors, with a 5.71 ERA and 40 (!!) homers allowed.

⚾️ Predictions for Phillies vs. Athletics
📈 Phillies vs. Athletics Betting Preview

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White Sox vs. Mariners 10:10PM ET

LEG 2: Jarred Kelenic 1+ HR (+460) with FanDuel

With any luck, Bryce Harper will have cashed our first leg by the time the first pitch hits the mitt in this next one. Another teammate of a slugger in our HR Round Robin, Jarred Kelenic has the third-highest probability of any player on the Mariners. He's hit for us before this year, and we're leaning on him again in an absolutely tasty matchup.

DimersBOT gives Kelenic a 23% probability to launch one out of T-Mobile Park tonight. We're getting a modest 6% +EV on this prop which means we're getting a better price than we should be (we'd make this closer to +330). 

What's better than betting against a pitcher at the top of the league in home runs allowed AND a bad bullpen? Betting against TWO of them. That's right, Kelenic faces White Sox starter Michael Kopech, who has given up 15 homers this season, an honor that has him tied for fourth-most in the league. If he played all his games in T-Mobile Park where we will be tonight, he'd have given up 18 dongs this year. He's also had four starts allowing multiple home runs, which bodes well for us to cash in both on Kelenic and J-Rod in our Round Robin (check our Twitter!). The White Sox have the fifth-worst bullpen ERA and the fifth-most home runs given up by relievers. We love these plays tonight.

⚾️ Predictions for White Sox vs. Mariners
📈 White Sox vs. Athletics Betting Preview

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MLB +3260 Home Run Parlay Friday, June 16, 2023

1️⃣ Bryce Harper 1+ HR
2️⃣ Jarred Kelenic 1+ HR

MORE: Today's Best MLB Props and Parlay

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*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

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