Home Run Predictions, Props and Parlay for MLB Wednesday [8/23/202]

We've locked in two sluggers and generated another MLB Home Run Parlay for Wednesday, August 23. Tonight's parlay features players from the Mets vs. Braves and Nationals vs. Yankees games as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

MORE: Best MLB Prop Picks and Lotto Parlay - Wednesday, August 23

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MLB +3225 Home Run Parlay For Wednesday 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Pete Alonso 1+ HR	+375
Stone Garrett 1+ HR	+600

RELATED: Wednesday's Home Run Cheat Sheet

Wednesday MLB Parlay Analysis

Mets vs. Braves 7:20PM ET

LEG 1: Pete Alonso (+375) with PointsBet

One of MLB's most powerful hitters and the hottest in terms of home runs over the past month, we look to Pete Alonso to ding one out of Truist Park tonight. After a bit of a mid-season "slump" where he hit 10 home runs over the course of June and July, he's back to hammering homers, with 13 in the past month (28 games). He's rocketed himself right into the home run race, though the books still list him at +1000 despite trailing Shohei Ohtani and Matt Olson by just four with 39 on the year. Our model gives the Polar Bear a 22% chance to go yard tonight.

He'll open this game against Charlie Morton, who's allowed 13 home runs through 134.2 innings of work this year. Though Pete has yet to go yard off Morton, Alonso has some good history against him. In 22 at-bats, he has a .273 average with a .318 SLG. Earlier this season when they faced each other, Uncle Charlie caught Alonso on the wrist with a fastball in the first inning, sending Pete to the 10-day IL. If not for that absence, Alonso might be right there at the top of the HR leaderboard. 

⚾️ Mets vs. Braves Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Mets vs. Braves

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MORE: Calling Our Shot's MLB Parlay of the Day

Nationals vs. Yankees 7:05PM ET

LEG 2: Stone Garrett 1+ HR (+600) with PointsBet

We head to the Bronx for our other home run leg, and that's Nationals' rookie Stone Garrett. Hopefully Stone can get this one out of the way early with his pitching matchup (more on that later). Garrett has hit nine home runs this year, which sounds like a modest number but he hasn't been an everyday player. He has shown his power upside, however, with a HardHit % in the 87th percentile of MLB and an Average Exit Velocity in the 80th. Our model gives him a 16% chance to hit a home run, giving us a slim edge of 2% in the odds.

Garrett will have about as good of an opportunity as you can get to hit a home run these days against Yankees starter Luis Severino. A shell of his peak form from a few seasons ago, Severino has been a baseball tee this season, allowing 20 home runs in just 67.2 innings of work. His pitching metrics are bottom of the barrel, especially in home run categories which should be no surprise given his tendency to allow bombs. We're already riding with Garrett's teammate Keibert Ruiz in our Home Run Round Robin, so we like backing Garrett here.

⚾️ Nationals vs. Yankees Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Nationals vs. Yankees

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MLB +3225 Home Run Parlay Wednesday, August 23, 2023

1️⃣ Pete Alonso 1+ HR
2️⃣ Stone Garrett 1+ HR

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

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