Home Run Predictions, Props and Parlay for MLB Wednesday [8/16/202]

We've locked in two sluggers and generated another MLB Home Run Parlay for Wednesday, August 16. Tonight's parlay features players from the Phillies vs. Blue Jays and Brewers vs. Dodgers games as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

MORE: Best MLB Prop Picks and Lotto Parlay - Wednesday, August 16

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MLB +5750 Home Run Parlay For Wednesday 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Nick Castellanos 1+ HR	+550
Christian Yelich 1+ HR	+800

RELATED: Wednesday's Home Run Cheat Sheet

Wednesday MLB Parlay Analysis

Phillies vs. Blue Jays 7:07PM ET

LEG 1: Nick Castellanos (+550) with PointsBet

We get started north of the border in Toronto as we task Nick Castellanos to smash one in Rogers Centre against the Blue Jays. Castellanos is having a great season, his second in Philadelphia, passing last year's home run total of 13 easily, with 20 bombs on the year. He's on pace for his second-highest output since 2018. He's hit six so far in August, where it seemed like he was hitting one every other day to start the month. 

He's up against the Blue Jays' Kevin Gausman, who has been pretty good this season. He's allowed 14 home runs at a rate of 0.91 HR/9, but Castellanos has great history against him. In 26 plate appearances, Castellanos has hit a pair of home runs and owns a .971 OPS. While Gausman is a very good pitcher, he's got a bottom-14th percentile Barrel % and bottom-11th percentile HardHit %, with his real weapon being the strikeout. Per Statcast, his expected home runs in Rogers Centre jumps all the way up to 18, meaning we're in a great park for the Barreler of Bad News to hit a dinger tonight.

⚾️ Phillies vs. Blue Jays Predictions

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MORE: Calling Our Shot's MLB Parlay of the Day

Brewers vs. Dodgers 10:20PM ET

LEG 2: Christian Yelich 1+ HR (+800) with PointsBet

Our second and final leg takes us to the nightcap between the Brewers and Dodgers on the West Coast. We look to Christian Yelich to launch one, who gets a 13% chance from our model at great odds of +800. Yelich has 16 home runs this year, but he hasn't hit once since the end of July, which also happened to be his strongest month for home runs all season. His power is still there, as he's in the top 10% of the league in average exit velocity and HardHit %. 

He's up against a familiar foe in Dodgers' ace Clayton Kershaw, who despite his age, is one of the NL's top pitchers. He's still vulnerable to home runs, however, giving up 13 through 100.1 innings this year. Over 33 plate appearances, Yelish has smacked two home runs and has a .946 OPS. Dodger Stadium gets a 14% home run boost thanks to the weather according to Ballpark Pal. It's not the easiest spot, but we get an edge in the odds and the history is very strong.

⚾️ Brewers vs. Dodgers Predictions

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MLB +5750 Home Run Parlay Wednesday, August 16, 2023

1️⃣ Nick Castellanos 1+ HR
2️⃣ Christian Yelich 1+ HR

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

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