Home Run Predictions, Props and Parlay for MLB Wednesday [7/26/2023]

We've locked in two sluggers and generated another MLB Home Run Parlay for Wednesday, July 26. Tonight's parlay features players from the Braves vs. Red Sox and Rangers vs. Astros games as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

MORE: Best Bets Across All Sports - Wednesday, July 26

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MLB +3750 Home Run Parlay For Wednesday 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Justin Turner 1+ HR	+600
Kyle Tucker 1+ HR	+450

RELATED: Wednesday's Home Run Cheat Sheet

Wednesday MLB Parlay Analysis

Braves vs. Red Sox 7:10PM ET

LEG 1: Justin Turner (+600) with DraftKings

Justin Turner has slowly become one of our favorite players to bet on over the past couple of weeks. He's come up big for us in our MB Trends parlays and cashed our best HR prop of the day just a couple of days ago when we capitalized on a great matchup between him and Max Scherzer. We task him to hit another dinger for us today as he steps up to the plate against the Braves' ace, Spencer Strider.

First, why Turner? For starters, our model is giving him a 29% chance to hit a home run tonight which is a substantial probability for a guy with odds at +600. This gives us nearly 15% +EV in the odds which should be closer to +300 at best. Turner has racked up 16 long bombs on the year, including two in his past five games.

Spencer Strider is not the normal type of pitcher we target in this column, but when the data supports the play, we don't shy away from it. Strider is an excellent pitcher and will almost undoubtedly take home a Cy Young award or two over his career. He is, however, vulnerable to the home run ball. He's coughed up 16 this year at a rate of 1.2 HR/9. We'll take Turner in his friendly Fenway confines to tee one off up and over the Green Monster tonight.

⚾️ Braves vs. Red Sox Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Braves vs. Red Sox

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MORE: Calling Our Shot's MLB Parlay of the Day

Rangers vs. Astros 8:10PM ET

LEG 2: Kyle Tucker 1+ HR (+450) with DraftKings

What is there to say about King Tuck, who's been one of the best hitters in MLB over the course of July? He's hitting an incredible .392 with seven home runs (including a three-dinger outing last week) in the month of July. He's now the (albeit very far) second favorite to win the AL MVP and would immediately slot in as the number one if Shohei Ohtani gets hurt, god forbid, or were to be traded to the NL.

He's on an 11-game hit streak and gets a plus-matchup against the Rangers' Andrew Heaney. An MLB journeyman over the past several seasons, Heaney is the weak link in the Rangers' rotation this year. With 18 home runs given up this year at a rate of 1.7 HR/9, he could very well surpass his career total of 29 or at least come very close. He's given up at least one home run in four of his last six starts, and multiple in three of them. We're getting a great price on Tucker, whose odds imply just an 18% chance of hitting a home run tonight.

⚾️ Rangers vs. Astros Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Rangers vs. Astros

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MLB +3750 Home Run Parlay Wednesday, July 26, 2023

1️⃣ Justin Turner 1+ HR
2️⃣ Kyle Tucker 1+ HR

Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on for every baseball game on Wednesday via our MLB Bet Hub, where we deliver you MLB predictions, suggested bets and MLB props, or check out the MLB Betting News section.

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

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