Home Run Predictions, Props and Parlay for MLB Wednesday [10/4/2023]

We've locked in two sluggers and generated another MLB Home Run Parlay for Wednesday, October 4. Tonight's parlay features players from the Diamondbacks vs. Brewers and Marlins vs. Phillies games as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

Don't forget to check out our Best Bets for All Sports Today, Wednesday, October 4!

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MLB +2762 Home Run Parlay For Wednesday 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Christian Walker 1+ HR	+430
Trea Turner 1+ HR	+440

RELATED: Wednesday's Player Prop Picks and +15762 Lotto

Wednesday MLB Parlay Analysis

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers 7:08PM ET

LEG 1: Christian Walker (+430) with FanDuel

For our first leg, we task one of our favorite home run targets from the regular season, Arizona's first baseman, Christian Walker. With 33 home runs (second-best career mark) and an .830 OPS, Walker was one of baseball's most consistent sluggers this season. He went 3/5 last night in the D-Backs' series opener against the Brewers and our model gives him an 18% chance to go yard tonight. Walker knows how to pull the ball to every angle of the park and we get a nice home run boost in American Family Field according to Ballpark Pal.

Walker hit 20 of his 33 homers off of righties this year and faces the Brewers' Freddy Peralta, who has been a little worse against righthanded batters like Walker than lefties. Peralta's 35th-percentile Barrel % is his worst pitching metric, and it happens to be Walker's strongest.

⚾️ Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Diamondbacks vs. Brewers

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Marlins vs. Phillies 8:08PM ET

LEG 2: Trea Turner (+440) with FanDuel

Trea Turner hit 26 home runs this year, with 16 of them coming in the last two months of the season. His Phillies tenure got off to a rocky start, but safe to say he's more than found his rhythm now. The Phillies are hungry to close out this Wild Card set tonight and will lean on their bats with a shaky Aaron Nola taking the mound.

While Turner hits better off of righties, Braxton Garret (LHP) of the Marlins has been victimized by righthanded batters this year, allowing 17 of his 20 home runs from that side of the plate. Just like Walker, Turner gets a nice weather boost tonight, and significantly to left field where Turner hits all of his home runs. In six career at-bats against Garrett, Turner has hit two home runs with a 1.333 SLG. It's a small sample size, but it bodes well for our man.

⚾️ Marlins vs. Phillies Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Marlins vs. Phillies

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MLB +2762 Home Run Parlay Wednesday, October 4, 2023

1️⃣ Christian Walker 1+ HR
2️⃣ Trea Turner 1+ HR

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

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