Home Run Predictions, Props and Parlay for MLB Tuesday [9/12/2023]

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PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Austin Riley 1+ HR	+450
Cody Bellinger 1+ HR	+450

Tuesday MLB Parlay Analysis

Braves vs. Phillies - 6:40PM EST

LEG 1: Austin Riley 1+ HR (+450) with PointsBet

For our first leg, we're getting a big bat from the team pacing all of MLB in home runs, with Austin Riley of the Atlanta Braves. Riley has clobbered 34 home runs this season, four shy of his career-best mark set last season. His .842 OPS ranks 21st in the league. He has just a pair this month, but has never hit fewer than five in a single month all year. DimersBOT projects Riley with a 21.7% chance to go yard tonight against NL East rival Philadelphia, which gives us a solid 5% edge in the odds.

The Phillies send Zack Wheeler to the mound and he's been pretty good this year, though not invincible. Wheeler has allowed 16 homers this season through 170 innings of work. Riley has seen Wheeler plenty of times in his career, with 10 hits, one home run and a .778 OPS in 36 plate appearances.

⚾️ Braves vs. Phillies Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Braves vs. Phillies

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Cubs vs. Rockies - 8:40PM EST

LEG 1: Cody Bellinger 1+ HR (+450) with PointsBet

For our second leg, we're heading to everyone's favorite park to target dingers, Coors Field, where we'll task Cody Bellinger to go yard against the Rockies. Bellinger has been having himself a redemption season in his first effort with the Cubs, putting up some of the best numbers of his career either since or including his NL MVP campaign back in 2019. He's up to 25 home runs with a .910 OPS, the eight-best in MLB. He's hit five of those dingers in September, his most recent coming two nights ago. Our model gives him a 26.6% chance of doing so tonight, giving us nearly a 9% edge in his odds.

He'll face Rockies starter Chris Flexen, who sports an abysmal 2.58 HR/9 with 23 homers allowed in just 80.2 innings, giving up 12 since being acquired by the Rockies at the deadline. Belli has swatted 16 of his home runs off righties like Flexen and we get the natural weather boost from the air in the Mile High City. 

⚾️ Cubs vs. Rockies Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Cubs vs. Rockies

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+2925 MLB Home Run Parlay Tuesday, September 12, 2023

1️⃣ Austin Riley 1+ HR
2️⃣ Cody Bellinger 1+ HR

RELATED: MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet for Tuesday

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

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