Home Run Predictions, Props and Parlay for MLB Tuesday [10/3/2023]

 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Willy Adames 1+ HR	+425
Kyle Schwarber 1+ HR	+500

Tuesday MLB Parlay Analysis

D-Backs vs. Brewers - 7:08PM EST

LEG 1: Willy Adames 1+ HR (+425) with bet365

For our first leg, we task Willy Adames of the BrewCrew to go yard in Game 1 of their Wild Card series against the Diamondbacks. Adames is coming off a 24-HR season that would be 26 adjusted for the confines of Milwaukee's park. He's capable of pulling the ball all over the field and boasts a Barrel % in the top 82nd percentile of MLB. 20 of his 24 home runs have come off right-handed pitchers and DimersBOT gives Adames a 19% probability to do so again tonight.

D-Backs Rookie Brandon Pfaadt takes the mound in a slightly puzzling decision for Arizona. Pfaadt has a 5.72 ERA and a 2.05 HR/9 in 19 regular season appearances. His Barrel % is in the bottom 3% of all of MLB and allowed multiple home runs in three of his last six starts. Add in the 16% weather boost we're getting according to Ballpark Pal and things match up very well for Adames.

⚾️ D-Backs vs. Brewers Predictions
📈 Betting preview: D-Backs vs. Brewers

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Marlins vs. Phillies - 8:08PM EST

LEG 1: Kyle Schwarber 1+ HR (+500) with bet365

Before we go any further, please pour one out for my Kyle Schwarber regular season home run leader ticket. At +1600 the value was incredible and it turned out to be a great read as he finished second with 47 home runs. (My +1200 Pete Alonso ticket was good enough for third place). Hat tip to you, Matt Olson. Moving on, we're looking at Schwarber to hit just one home run for us tonight when the Phillies take on the Fish in Citizen's Bank Park.

Schwarber is such a funny player; he's like Joey Gallo if Gallo could draw more walks. He hits nukes for home runs but has just a .197 batting average. His Whiff rate and K rate are in the bottom fifth of the league but his Barrel % and Average exit velocity are in the top sixth percentile. He's faced Marlins starter Jesus Luzardo nine times, with a home run and .556 SLG against him. Luzardo has a 1.11 HR/9 and allows a Barrel % in just the 23rd percentile in MLB according to baseball savant.

⚾️ Marlins vs. Phillies Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Marlins vs. Phillies

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+3050 MLB Home Run Parlay Tuesday, October 3, 2023

1️⃣ Willy Adames 1+ HR
2️⃣ Kyle Schwarber 1+ HR

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*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

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