Home Run Predictions, Props and Parlay for MLB Thursday [9/21/2023]

We've locked in two sluggers and generated another MLB Home Run Parlay for Thursday, September 21. Tonight's parlay features players from the Braves vs. Nationals game as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

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MLB +2306 Home Run Parlay For Thursday 

RELATED: Thursday's Player Prop Picks and +3933 Lotto

Thursday MLB Parlay Analysis

Braves vs. Nationals 7:05PM ET

LEG 1: Matt Olson (+255) with PointsBet
LEG 2: Orlando Arcia (+630) with PointsBet

Starting Nationals right-hander Jake Irvin appears to be one of the top dinger targets for bettors tonight. The rookie comes up against the might of the Atlanta Braves rotation having given up multi-home run games in five of his last 10 starts. Irvin relies primarily on three pitches - the 4-seam fastball, the curveball and the sinker; all of which having conceded five or more home runs with the sinker particularly fruitful for opposition hitters with a .347 avg to go along with seven HR on the season. With such a high likelihood of seeing multiple home runs, it makes sense to go after two Braves on our Thursday parlay.

First up we're locking in Matt Olson, who our home run predictor likes at a 30% probability to hit a home run. Olson has been the most prolific hitter for Atlanta this season, and he matches up well with what Irvin has got in his arsenal. The Braves slugger hits at .318 against the sinker, his best avg against any pitch type this season. He can also crush the fastball with 15 home runs from that pitch this year.

Next, we're going with Orlando Arcia who our model likes with a 5.7% edge detected on the sportsbook odds of +630. Arcia's position in the batting order may restrict his ABs, but he should get at least two against Irvin where he excels against the curveball, batting at an obscene .382 avg this season. It's been a little while since the 29-year-old has donged, but this is an excellent opportunity according to our home run predictor.

⚾️ Braves vs. Nationals Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Braves vs. Nationals

MLB +2306 Home Run Parlay Thursday, September 21, 2023

1️⃣ Matt Olson 1+ HR
2️⃣ Orlando Arcia 1+ HR

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

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