Home Run Predictions, Props and Parlay for MLB Thursday [8/24/2023]

There are just a few games to choose from tonight and it's time to once again bet some home runs! We're attacking a pair of games with our MLB Home Run Parlay for Thursday, August 24. Today's parlay features two players from the Blue Jays vs. Orioles games as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

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MLB +8500 Home Run Parlay For Thursday 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Adley Rutschman 1+ HR	+600
Bo Bichette 1+ HR	+1050

Thursday MLB Parlay Analysis

Blue Jays vs. Orioles 7:05PM ET

LEG 1: Adley Rutschman 1+ HR (+600) with PointsBet

We're looking at a same-game parlay for tonight's home run quest, with two batters on opposing teams. We've got an excellent weather boost in this game which is why we're targeting a pair of batters from the same game. Let's get started!

Adley Rutschamn is up first.He has been raking at the dish with 24 total knocks in August to go along with a pair of home runs. He's brought his HR total to 16 on the year with some absolute nukes traveling well over 400 feet. Though he displays power, he's not your typical home run hitter with his Barrel %, Hard Hit % and Average Exit Velocity in the bottom half of MLB but he still knows how to launch the ball out of the park, which our model gives him a 14% chance of happening tonight. While that doesn't sound like much, we've got a few things in our favor.

He's up against the Blue Jays' Jose Berrios who he's faced 15 total times in his career, picking up 8 hits and swatting one home run. He's got a .615 average and a 1.000 SLG against Berrios. Rutschman has hit 11 of his homers off of right-handers and is also a switch hitter, meaning he can take Berrios deep from either side of the plate. 11 of his home runs have gone out to right field which bodes well for us tonight. Just take a look at this home run boost from the weather (courtesy of Ballpark Pal).

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LEG 2: Bo Bichette 1+ HR (+1050) with PointsBet

For our second leg, we head to the other dugout and enlist Bo Bichette in our home run army. Bichette has swatted 18 homers this year and he'd likely have the solo team lead for the Jays if not for three weeks of missed time to open the month of August. He's back as of a few days ago though and right back in the swing of things, picking up HR #18 in his second game after coming off the IL. 

Righthander Kyle Gibson has 15 home runs through 150.1 innings of work at a rate of 0.90 HR/9 which is pretty good. If not for the weather boost and the chunky edge we get in Bo's odds, we'd probably not target Gibson but the value is certainly there. Gibson has given up an even amount of home runs to lefties (8) and righties (7) but Bichette leaves the yard more often against righties (14 home runs). Though he favors left field, he's shown the ability to spread the ball all over, sending six homers out to center or right. Our model gives Bichette a 17% chance to hit a bomb with a significant 8.4% edge in the odds.

⚾️ Blue Jays vs. Orioles Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Blue Jays vs. Orioles

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MORE: Thursday's Home Run Cheat Sheet

MLB +8500 Home Run Parlay Thursday, August 24, 2023

1️⃣ Adley Rutschman 1+ HR
2️⃣ Bo Bichette 1+ HR

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Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on for every baseball game on Thursday via our MLB Bet Hub, where we deliver you MLB predictions, suggested bets and MLB props, or check out the MLB Betting News section.

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