Home Run Predictions, Props and Parlay for MLB Thursday [9/28/2023]

We've locked in two sluggers and generated another MLB Home Run Parlay for Thursday, September 28. Tonight's parlay features players from the Cubs vs. Braves and Rangers vs. Mariners games as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

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MLB +2180 Home Run Parlay For Thursday 

RELATED: Thursday's Player Prop Picks and +12039 Lotto

Thursday MLB Parlay Analysis

Cubs vs. Braves 7:20PM ET

LEG 1: Dansby Swanson (+500) with PointsBet

With the NL East division title well in hand, the Braves will trot out prospect AJ Smith-Shawver for his first start since July 30. Smith-Shawver's form through five games earlier this year makes for enjoyable reading for home bettors where he allowed seven home runs in his last three games. 

The Cubs are still locked in a wild card battle and need to be on the offensive as they chase the W with a perfect opportunity to do so. 

With Smith-Shawver struggling earlier this year with his fastball, allowing five of his seven home runs from that ball with a .529 slugging percentage, we're looking at a guy who has been crushing the fastball this season in Dansby Swanson.

Swanson has hit 17 of his 22 season home runs from the fastball - more than any other Cub by far. He sees the ball extremely well and smashes it with an average exit velocity of 91mph. He is the most equipped to deal out some punishment this evening. 

⚾️ Cubs vs. Braves Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Cubs vs. Braves

Rangers vs. Mariners 9:40PM ET

LEG 2: Corey Seager (+280) with PointsBet

A home run for Corey Seager against Mariners right hander Logan Gilbert has been elusive throughout his career, but this may just be the night.

Seager has an exceptional record against Gilbert otherwise from 13 previous career ABs, hitting at a .385 avg with three extra base hits. The Rangers slugger has been in some of the best form of his life this year, needing just one more home run to eclipse his best return for a season. Our model likes him as the most likely home run hitter tonight at a 24% probability.

⚾️ Rangers vs. Mariners Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Rangers vs. Mariners

MLB +2180 Home Run Parlay Thursday, September 28, 2023

1️⃣ Dansby Swanson 1+ HR
2️⃣ Corey Seager 1+ HR

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

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Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on for every baseball game on Thursday via our MLB Bet Hub, where we deliver you MLB predictions, suggested bets and MLB props, or check out the MLB Betting News section.

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