Home Run Predictions, Props and Parlay for MLB Saturday [8/12/2023]

Welcome to another day of big hits as we look to keep our hot streak rolling with our MLB Home Run Parlay for Saturday, August 12. Saturday's parlay features a pair of sluggers from the Rockies vs. Dodgers and Padres vs. D-Backs games as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

MORE: Best Bets Today from All Sports - Saturday, August 12

Now, we know you probably already have an account with one of the leading sportsbooks here in the US, but it definitely pays to have more than one funded account when betting on sports.

Find out which books are best, who has the best new customer offer, and how you can secure better odds and lines for all of your bets, below.

👉 The Best US Betting Sites 👈

At the time of this publishing, you will find today's best odds on PointsBet at +4700.

MLB +4700 Home Run Parlay For Saturday 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Corbin Carroll 1+ HR	+700
Freddie Freeman 1+ HR	+500

MORE: Best A.I. Prop Picks and Lotto Parlay for Saturday, August 12

Saturday MLB Parlay Analysis

Padres vs. D-Backs 8:10PM ET

LEG 1: Corbin Carroll 1+ HR (+700) with PointsBet

We start off with Arizona's rookie phenom Corbin Carroll, who quickly established himself as one of the stars of the new generation this season. Carroll is so heavily favored to win the NL Rookie of the Year race that the market is off the board on some books. For comparison, the only other player in that scenario is Shohei Ohtani for AL MVP. Carroll has whacked 21 home runs this year including his peak of 8 in the month of June, before hitting 4 in Jul and is still looking for his first of August. The D-Backs have hit a bit of a skid as well, but today is a good chance for Caroll to get back in the HR column.

DimersBOT gives Carroll a 17% chance of hitting a home run tonight and at his best odds of +700, we get about a 5% edge. He'll open up this contest against Padres' recent acquisition, Rich Hill, who has given up 17 home runs across 122 innings, putting him on pace for the second-highest mark of his career. Plus, Arizona's bullpen has allowed the fourth-most homers this year with 

⚾️ Padres vs. D-Backs Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Padres vs. D-Backs

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Rockies vs. Dodgers 9:10PM ET

LEG 2: Freddie Freeman 1+ HR (+500) with PointsBet

There's not much to say about the would-be NL MVP (if not for Ronald Acuna Jr.'s stellar season) that you don't already know. Freeman has 23 home runs this year with an xSLG in the 98th percentile of MLB. He'd have 26 home runs per Statcast if he hit them all in Dodger Stadium where he'll be playing tonight. It doesn't matter if he faces a lefty (12 HR, 1.127 OPS) or a righty (11 HR, .967 OPS); he simply rakes. Our model gives him a 22% chance to launch one out of the park tonight, good enough for a 6% edge against the odds.

He'll be up against the Rockies who send Peter Lambert to the mound. Lambert's kept a clean sheet for home runs in his past four starts but still sports a 1.69 HR/9 with 10 home runs through 53.1 IP. Today, he faces by far his toughest test since moving into the rotation. His Barrel % and HardHit % are both in the bottom 18th percentile of the league and he has an abysmal 2.19 WHIP against left-handed hitters. Freeman can hit one just about anywhere in the park and we are locking him in to bring us home tonight.

Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on for every baseball game on Saturday via our MLB Bet Hub, where we deliver you MLB predictions, suggested bets and MLB props, or check out the MLB Betting News section

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MLB +4700 Home Run Parlay Saturday, August 12, 2023

1️⃣ Corbin Carroll 1+ HR
2️⃣ Freddie Freeman 1+ HR

Dimers' 👉 Best US Betting Sites 👈

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

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