Home Run Predictions, Props and Parlay for MLB Saturday [7/29/2023]

Welcome to another day of big hits as we look to keep our hot streak rolling with our MLB Home Run Parlay for Saturday, July 29. Saturday's parlay features a pair of sluggers from the Nationals vs. Mets and Red Sox vs. Giants games as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

MORE: Best Bets Today from All Sports - Saturday, July 29

If you haven't already, sign up for BetMGM ➡️here⬅️ where you can bet this HR parlay risk-free up to $1000. It is by far the best promo out there to bet on baseball this Summer. At the time of this publishing, you will find today's best odds on DraftKings at +3190.

MLB +3190 Home Run Parlay For Saturday 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Francisco Alvarez 1+ HR	+375
Triston Casas 1+ HR	+600

MORE: Best A.I. Prop Picks and Lotto Parlay for Saturday, July 29

Saturday MLB Parlay Analysis

Nationals vs. Mets 7:10PM ET

LEG 1: Francisco Alvarez 1+ HR (+375) with DraftKings

Starting things off is Mets' powerhouse rookie catcher Francisco Alvarez. DimersBOT gives Alvarez a 23% chance to hit a home run tonight with a 4% edge in his odds. The talented young backstop has racked up 19 home runs in his rookie campaign. He largely hits his home runs in bursts and it's 10 days since his last one. But he has the ability to hit absolute nukes and will have a prime opportunity tonight.

Alvarez gets a great pitching matchup against the Nationals' Patrick Corbin, who has allowed 19 home runs this season at a rate of 1.42 HR/9. He hits significantly better off of lefties, but Corbin has allowed 17 of his home runs to right-handed batters, so we're comfortable meeting in the middle. Also working in our favor is the Nationals' bullpen which has allowed 57 home runs this season, tied for the most in the league.

⚾️ Nationals vs. Mets Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Nationals vs. Mets

---

Red Sox vs. Giants 7:15PM ET

LEG 2: Triston Casas 1+ HR (+600) with DraftKings

Triston Casas is scorching hot, with four home runs in his past five games including back-to-back over the past two. Can he make it three in a row? We sure hope so! Tonight, Casas gets a 15% probability from DimersBOT to hit a home run, and 2% +EV in the odds which are as low as +460 on FanDuel. 

Casas has hit 16 home runs so far this season, with seven of them coming in July. He's had just one game since the All-Star Break without a hit. Giants starter Ryan Walker has pitched just 33.1 innings this year but has allowed five home runs. All but one of his 16 bombs have come off righties like Walker. This Boston lineup is no cakewalk and Casas has a good matchup to tee one off yet again.

Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on for every baseball game on Saturday via our MLB Bet Hub, where we deliver you MLB predictions, suggested bets and MLB props, or check out the MLB Betting News section.

---

MLB +3190 Home Run Parlay Saturday, July 29, 2023

1️⃣ Francisco Alvarez 1+ HR
2️⃣ Riston Casas 1+ HR

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

Please remember to enjoy gambling responsibly. Responsible gambling means setting limits, staying in control, and understanding that luck is just part of the game. Make informed choices, set a budget, and know when to take a break. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.