Home Run Predictions, Props and Parlay for MLB Saturday [7/22/2023]

Welcome to another day of big hits as we look to keep our hot streak rolling with our MLB Home Run Parlay for Saturday, July 22. Saturday's parlay features a pair of sluggers from the D-Backs vs. Reds and Braves vs. Brewers games as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

MORE: Best Bets Today from All Sports - Saturday, July 22

If you haven't already, sign up for BetMGM ➡️here⬅️ where you can bet this HR parlay risk-free up to $1000. It is by far the best promo out there to bet on baseball this Summer. At the time of this publishing, you will find today's best odds on DraftKings, but it doesn't hurt to shop around before locking in the parlay.

MLB +2200 Home Run Parlay For Saturday 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Corbin Carroll 1+ HR	+475
Mookie Betts 1+ HR	+300

MORE: Best A.I. Prop Picks and Lotto Parlay

Saturday MLB Parlay Analysis

D-Backs vs. Reds 4:10PM ET

LEG 1: Corbin Carroll 1+ HR (+475) with DraftKings

Yep, we're running it back. We locked these guys in yesterday and neither came through, but when the data is good, we don't shy away from it just because we tried it the day before.

Carroll is the NL Rookie of the Year favorite and for plenty good reason. He's tied with Christian Walker for the Diamondbacks' team lead of 20 home runs. He's an absolutely stellar talent who can spray the ball out of the park in any direction. He has just a pair of home runs in the month of July, though that includes the week of for the All-Star Break, and he's got a great chance to get back into home run form tonight.

Reds starter Brandon Williamson takes the mound having given up 10 home runs in just 52.2 innings of work, at an average of 1.7 HR/9. His Statcast bleeds blue (which is bad) and he's in the bottom 20th percentile or lower in most home run applicable metrics. It doesn't appear the All-Star Break did him any favors, as he gave up a pair of home runs in his most recent start after registering two clean sheets before the ASB. Per Ballpark Pal, we're getting a 32% HR boost from the weather today. 

⚾️ D-Backs vs. Reds Predictions
📈 Betting preview: D-Backs vs. Reds

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Dodgers vs. Rangers 4:05PM ET

LEG 2: Mookie Betts 1+ HR (+300) with DraftKings

Part two of the home run redux is Mookie Betts. For a guy of Mookie's stature, he has crazy power. He absolutely obliterates balls out to left field where all but one of his 27 home runs have landed in the seats. DimersBOT gives him a whopping 38% chance to hit a home run against the Rangers this afternoon and even at that high of probability, we're still getting almost 15% +EV in the odds.

Dane Dunning toes the rubber for the Rangers and for much of this season, this would have been a stay-away matchup for us. Dunning allowed zero (!) home runs in the months of April and May. Since the start of June, he's given up seven home runs, registering just three starts over that time without one. He's been knocked for one in two straight.

Mookie has been smashing righties this year, with 17 of his home runs coming against right-handed pitching. Let's trust the guy with the second-most home runs in the NL to get after a pitcher who's been peppered for homers lately.

Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on for every baseball game on Saturday via our MLB Bet Hub, where we deliver you MLB predictions, suggested bets and MLB props, or check out the MLB Betting News section.

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MLB +2200 Home Run Parlay Saturday, July 22, 2023

1️⃣ Corbin Carroll 1+ HR
2️⃣ Mookie Betts 1+ HR

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

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