Home Run Predictions, Props and Parlay for MLB Saturday [10/7/2023]

We've locked in two sluggers and generated another MLB Home Run Parlay for Saturday, October 7. Tonight's parlay features players from the Phillies vs. Braves and Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers games as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

Don't forget to check out our Best Bets for All Sports Today, Saturday, October 7!

Before you dive in, you should know that it definitely pays to have more than one funded US Sportsbook account when betting on sports. 

For example, did you know that new users at bet365 can get $150 in bonus bets after betting just $5? That's easily one of the best promos to take advantage of when betting on this postseason.

MLB +3781 Home Run Parlay For Saturday 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Matt Olson 1+ HR	+575
Mookie Betts 1+ HR	+475

Saturday MLB Parlay Analysis

Phillies vs. Braves 6:07PM ET

LEG 1: Matt Olson (+575) with bet365

We start with the first game in either NLDS series as the Braves host the Phillies in Truist Park, and what better way to start than with MLB's regular season Home Run King, Matt Olson? Our model loves Olson today, not only with a high probability of 26.0% (highest on the slate) but also for value, as he gets a chunky 11.2% edge in his odds of +575, also the highest of the day. The postseason atmosphere changes things, of course, but these are some of the best HR odds on Olson all year long, and big players step up in big moments.

According to Statcast, Matt Olson's HardHit % (99th percentile), AVG Exit Velocity (99th percentile) and Barrel % (96th percentile) are absolutely elite metrics. His only real flaw is his strikeout tendency, but that's par for the course with power hitters. Phillies starter Ranger Suarez allowed 13 home runs in 124.2 innings of work this year, and though Olson has never hit a home run off Suarez, he's made consistent contact with a .267 AVG across 18 plate appearances.

⚾️ Phillies vs. Braves Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Phillies vs. Braves

---

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers 9:20PM ET

LEG 2: Mookie Betts (+475) with bet365

Now we head to the other NLDS for Game 1 in Saturday's nightcap, featuring the Diamondbacks and Dodgers on the West Coast. In keeping with our theme of high probabilities and strong value, we look to Mookie Betts, the Dodgers regular-season home run leader to go yard tonight. He gets a 22.0% probability from DimersBOT and that comes with a solid 4.6% edge in his odds of +475 on bet365. Mookie mashes all of his homers to left and left-center and that's precisely where we're getting a little weather boost tonight, per Ballpark Pal.

We have a pretty favorable pitching matchup to lean into, with Arizona sending RHP Merrill Kelly to the mound. Kelly has basically one strength and that's his chase rate, an area where Mookie not only excels but sits at the very top of all of MLB (99th percentile). Mookie loves to hit righties, with 25 of his dingers coming off of them and he obliterates the fastball (22 home runs) which Kelly throws 42% of the time. Oh, and he's hit three home runs in 32 career at-bats against Kelly with a .914 OPS.

⚾️ Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers

---

MLB +3781 Home Run Parlay Saturday, October 7, 2023

1️⃣ Matt Olson 1+ HR
2️⃣ Mookie Betts 1+ HR

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

Dimers' 👉 Best US Betting Sites 👈

Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on for every baseball game on Saturday via our MLB Bet Hub, where we deliver you MLB predictions, suggested bets and MLB props, or check out the MLB Betting News section.

Please remember to enjoy gambling responsibly. Responsible gambling means setting limits, staying in control, and understanding that luck is just part of the game. Make informed choices, set a budget, and know when to take a break. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-300-GAMBLER.