Home Run Predictions, Props and Parlay for MLB Monday [9/4/2023]

 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Kyle Schwarber 1+ HR	+425
Anthony Santander 1+ HR	+280

Monday MLB Parlay Analysis

Phillies vs. Padres - 6:40PM EST

LEG 1: Kyle Schwarber 1+ HR (+425) with PointsBet

We start off with a known slugger, Kyle Schwarber, as we look to go yard against Rich Hill and the Padres this evening at PetCo Park in San Diego. Kyle Schwarber is such an interesting leadoff hitter as he does the two things you don't really want your leadoff guy to primarily do; strikeout and homer. Nevertheless, despite his .190 batting average, he's clubbed 39 dingers this season, with an outside shot to tie or pass his career high of 46 from last season. 12 of them have come in the past 30 days. Our A.I. model gives Schwarber a 25.2% chance to dong one tonight, and we're getting longer odds than usual, with a solid 6.2% edge against the books.

He'll start this one against the Padres' Rich Hill who sports a 1.38 HR/9 this season with 21 allowed over 137.0 innings. Though Schwarber favors righties, he's hit 14 of his home runs this season off left-handed pitchers like Hill. Schwarber has one home run and a .333 SLG against Hill in 15 plate appearances, which isn't anything spectacular, but Hill is clearly in decline. With the Phillies guaranteed to bat 9 innings, we could see 5 at-bats for Schwarber tonight.

⚾️ Phillies vs. Padres Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Phillies vs. Padres

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MORE: Today's Best Bets Across All Sports - Monday, September 4

Orioles vs. Angels - 9:38PM EST

LEG 1: Anthony Santander 1+ HR (+280) with PointsBet

We go from one hot slugger to another, as Anthony Santander is coming off his best month of the season from a home run perspective. He smacked eight homers in August, the most he has in any single month this season. His Average Exit Velocity, HardHit% and Barrel % are not otherworldly, but they are all within the top third of qualified MLB hitters. His .818 OPS is the highest it's been so far in his career with this many games played.

There are two key factors in this game that lend well to a Santander home run. One is the weather boost. According to Ballpark Pal, Angels Stadium has a 12% HR boost tonight, particularly out to center and right-centerfield, which is where Santander tends to hit his home runs. The second key factor, is the Angels are sending spot-starter Kenny Rosenberg to the mound tonight, who has 17.2 total innings of work in the bigs between 2022-23. He gave up 14 home runs in AAA this year for a HR/9 of 1.26, which isn't terrible, but not great either. This Orioles lineup is potent, and even if Rosenberg pitches well or only goes a few innings, the Angels bullpen is tied for the third-most HR allowed this season with 69.

⚾️ Orioles vs. Angels Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Orioles vs. Angels

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+1895 MLB Home Run Parlay Monday, September 4, 2023

1️⃣ Kyle Schwarber 1+ HR
2️⃣ Anthony Santander 1+ HR

RELATED: MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet for Monday

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

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