Home Run Predictions, Props and Parlay for MLB Monday [9/18/2023]

Monday MLB Parlay Analysis

Phillies vs. Braves - 7:20PM EST

LEG 1: Matt Olson 1+ HR (+360) with PointsBet

Atlanta - the league leaders in home runs this season - got a taste of their own medicine over the weekend, conceding a whopping 36 runs to the Marlins in their three-game road series; but that might not be good news for the Phillies as the Braves head home looking for retribution. 

In a raft of Braves players that our model likes to get the better of Zach Wheeler, who is coming off giving up three home runs to this same team in his last start less than a week ago, we're locking in Matt Olson. Olson now owns the Atlanta franchise record for home runs in a season and enjoyed a fruitful series against Philadelphia last week, clocking three home runs. Our model rates him as the most likely home run hitter at a 30% probability.

⚾️ Phillies vs. Braves Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Phillies vs. Braves

Brewers vs. Cardinals - 7:10PM EST

LEG 1: Carlos Santana 1+ HR (+500) with PointsBet

Starting Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainright is riding off into the sunset in his final year in the Majors before retirement - but that ride has been a bumpy one. The 42-year-old has struggled this season, and opposition hitters have taken advantage, knocking him for 12 home runs in his last 10 outings, including four of them when he faced the Braves on September 7. Milwaukee haven't been prolific home run hitters this season, ranking in the bottom half of the league for homers, but this is still a great opportunity ahead of them tonight. 

We're looking at Carlos Santana here. Santana is equipped to punish Wainright's weaknesses which have this year been his sinker (11 HR allowed on .403 avg) and curveball (6 HR allowed on .299 batting avg). The Brewers slugger has been efficient against both balls this season, hitting 11 home runs combined from those two pitch types. Our model has Santana hitting a home run with a 3.1% edge detected against the sportsbook odds.

⚾️ Brewers vs. Cardinals Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Brewers vs. Cardinals

+2660 MLB Home Run Parlay Monday, September 18, 2023

1️⃣ Matt Olson 1+ HR
2️⃣ Carlos Santana 1+ HR

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*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

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