Home Run Predictions, Props and Parlay for MLB Monday [8/7/2023]

+2050 MLB Home Run Parlay For Monday

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Peter Alonso 1+ HR	+330
Luis Robert 1+ HR	+400

Monday MLB Parlay Analysis

Cubs vs. Mets - 7:10PM EST

LEG 1: Pete Alonso 1+ HR (+330) with PointsBet

Our old friend Pete Alonso gets things started for us on his home turf. He's got 31 home runs, good enough for third-most in the league. His most recent came on August 1st with a mammoth blast off the Royals' Zack Greinke. He clubs 'em all over the park, from the left field fence to the right field corner and per Ballpark Pal, there's a significant home run boost from the weather in Citi Field tonight.

He's up against Drew Smyly for the Cubs, who's been a baseball tee for Pete Alonso in his career, and even more for hitters this season. Despite sporting pitching metrics that would make most of the pitchers atop the HR leaderboards jealous, Smyly can't seem to keep it in the park this year. His 21 home runs allowed is the third-highest mark of his career and has given up at least one in nine of his last eleven starts. In their head-to-head matchups, Alonso has a pair of home runs and a .917 slugging percentage against Smyly in 12 at-bats. Let's go for HR #3 vs. Smyly tonight.

⚾️ Cubs vs. Mets Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Cubs vs. Mets

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MORE: Today's Best Bets Across All Sports - Monday, August 7

Yankees vs. White Sox - 8:10PM EST

LEG 1: Luis Robert Jr. 1+ HR (+400) with PointsBet

We head to the Windy City next as we look to White Sox star Luis Robert Jr. as the White Sox take on the Guardians. Robert Jr. is just about the only thing going right for the White Sox in 2023. He's racked up 30 home runs, tied for fourth in the league, and is hitting .264 with a .605 slugging percentage. He has the ability to launch one to any corner of the park, but he much prefers left field. He hits absolute nukes too, with a 53.3% no-doubter percentage per Statcast, meaning they'd be gone in all 30 parks. He gets a 22% chance to hit one tonight from our model.

His matchup is no cakewalk, with the Yankees' ace Gerrit Cole taking the mound. Cole is a top Cy Young candidate in the American League this season. Cole has allowed 14 home runs through 143.1 IP, which is the highest innings mark across the AL. He has only allowed four home runs since the end of June, but they did come in four of his last five starts. They are his only real weakness, with his Barrel %, HardHit % and Max Exit Velocity in the bottom half of the league, his lowest marks as a pitcher.

⚾️ Yankees vs. White Sox Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Yankees vs. White Sox

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+2050 MLB Home Run Parlay Monday, August 7, 2023

1️⃣ Pete Alonso 1+ HR
2️⃣ Luis Robert Jr. 1+ HR

RELATED: MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet for Monday

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

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