Home Run Predictions, Props and Parlay for MLB Monday [7/3/2023]

A new week begins and we're looking to keep our hot form rolling after hitting two HR parlays last week with our MLB Home Run Parlay for Monday, July 3. Tonight's parlay features players from the Orioles vs. Yankees and Reds vs. Nationals games as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

MORE: Monday's MLB Best Props and Lotto Parlay

If you haven't already, sign up for BetMGM➡️here⬅️where you can bet this HR parlay and get your first wager up to $1000 back if it loses. It is by far the best promo out there to bet on baseball this Summer. You will find the best odds for today's parlay on FanDuel, however.

+3620 MLB Home Run Parlay For Monday

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Lane Thomas 1+ HR	+500
Anthony Volpe 1+ HR	+520

Monday MLB Parlay Analysis

Reds vs. Nationals - 6:05PM EST

LEG 1: Lane Thomas 1+ HR (+500) with FanDuel

An early evening first pitch will get us started (maybe even literally), as our first leg, Lane Thomas, opens up the batting order for the Nationals. Lane Thomas has been a beast this year. After going dinger-less in the month of April, he mashed eight homers in May and six in June for a total of 14 this year, on pace to blow past his previous career total of 17 from last season. He's raised his batting average to an impressive .299. He's looking for his first home run in a week, with DimersBOT giving Thomas a 31% chance to go yard, giving us a serious 14% edge in the odds at FanDuel based on his implied probability of just 16.6%.

He'll step up to the plate against Reds starter Luke Weaver (6.96 ERA). Weaver's been smacked for a total of 14 home runs this year, the top 15% of the league. He's approaching his career-high of 19 in that department, and it's just July. He's allowed a homer in 8 of 13 starts so far and he's in the bottom of the league in all Statcast HR metrics.

⚾️ Reds vs. Nationals Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Reds vs. Nationals

MORE: Today's Best Bets Across All Sports - Monday, July 3

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Orioles vs. Yankees - 7:05PM EST

LEG 2: Anthony Volpe 1+ HR (+540) with FanDuel

As long as we don't get hit with rain, this game is one of the best home run targets on the slate. Though our man Anthony Rizzo has a higher probability at 30%, he's been ice cold with zero home runs since May. Anthony Volpe has had a pretty strong season for a rookie, despite his low batting average of .221. He's in the midst of a seven-game hit streak and gets a 21% probability from our model which gives is a respectable 6% edge.

Yes, Volpe only has two home runs since the end of May, but he's been racking up hits lately and we may have the cure for the drought. Tyler Wells takes the mound for Baltimore, having given up five home runs in his last three starts. He's given up 19 home runs this year which is tied for the 3rd-most in the league. He's been tagged for multiple homers in six starts, notching just three starts without allowing a home run since April. Even better? He's given up five home runs to this Yankees lineup in two starts this season.

Volpe can hit in home runs to any corner of the park and he'd actually have 11 homers this season if he only played in Yankee Stadium. Let's lean on the great weather in our favor, the short porch potential and one of MLB's most vulnerable pitchers.

If you prefer Rizzo's chances, maybe play this parlay in two forms, with Rizzo in one and Volpe in the other, but we're sticking with Volpe for our official play.

⚾️ Orioles vs. Yankees Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Orioles vs. Yankees

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+3620 MLB Home Run Parlay Monday, July 3, 2023

1️⃣ Lane Thomas 1+ HR
2️⃣ Anthony Volpe 1+ HR

RELATED: Calling Our Shot's +140 MLB Parlay of the Day

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on for every baseball game on Monday via our MLB Bet Hub, where we deliver you MLB predictions, suggested bets and MLB props, or check out the MLB Betting News section.

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