Home Run Predictions, Props and Parlay for MLB Monday [10/9/2023]

 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Ronald Acuna Jr. 1+ HR	+425
Mookie Betts 1+ HR	+425

Monday MLB Parlay Analysis

Phillies vs. Braves - 6:07PM EST

LEG 1: Ronald Acuna Jr. 1+ HR (+425) with bet365

For the first time all season, the Braves find themselves in unfamiliar territory: backs against the wall. It's not an elimination game, but it may as well be for Atlanta, as teams facing a 2-0 series deficit historically don't fare well. The key to their run will be tying the series up tonight and to do so, they'll need to call on their trusted bats. Ronald Acuna Jr. will be announced as the NL MVP when awards season arrives and it was on the back of a ridiculous season in which he stole 73 bases and mashed 41 home runs. That HR mark was good enough for fifth-most in the league.

The Phillies send Zack Wheeler to the mound and he's been solid against the HR this year, but not unbeatable. He's allowed 20 over 191.1 innings of work, but Acuna has historically been great against him. Through 48 plate appearances, Acuna has hit four homers with a .902 OPS. Wheeler throws 61% of his pitches as fastballs, which Acuna has been obliterating this year (23 HR, .631 xSLG).

⚾️ Phillies vs. Braves Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Phillies vs. Braves

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Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers - 9:07PM EST

LEG 1: Mookie Betts 1+ HR (+425) with bet365

We're going from one big bag to another as we look to Mookie Betts to bring us home in the nightcap of this little two-game slate. Like the Braves, the Dodgers find themselves staring down a 2-0 series deficit if they can't even things up in Dodgers Stadium tonight. Mookie hit 39 homers in the regular season, with virtually all of his hitting metrics in the top 10% of the league or better. He's everything you want in a power hitter. 

He'll face the Diamondbacks Zac Gallen to open this game, a pitcher he's faced 21 total times in his career, picking up five hits with a home run and an .881 OPS. Gallen isn't your typical "ace." While he excels at command, limiting walks and getting strikeouts, he's incredibly vulnerable to home runs, even if he doesn't give them up frequently. His Barrel % is in the bottom-third of MLB, his Hard-Hit % is in the bottom-fifth percentile and his Avg Exit Velocity is bottom-third percentile. His 22 home runs allowed this year would be 27 if they were hit in Dodger Stadium where they play tonight. 

⚾️ Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers

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+2656 MLB Home Run Parlay Monday, October 9, 2023

1️⃣ Ronald Acuna Jr 1+ HR
2️⃣ Mookie Betts 1+ HR

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*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

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