Home Run Predictions, Props and Parlay for MLB Friday [9/1/23]

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MLB +2500 Home Run Parlay For Friday 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Ryan Mountcastle 1+ HR	+550
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ HR	+300

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

Friday MLB Parlay Analysis

Orioles vs. D-Backs 9:10PM ET

LEG 1: Ryan Mountcastle 1+ HR (+550) with bet365

We're looking at Ryan Mountcastle to tee one off in one of the alter games as the Orioles head to Chase Field in Arizona. Mounty has 18 home runs this year and is on a serious heater at the dish. He racked up 36 hits with five home runs in August to go along with a .984 OPS. He's a big part of why the Orioles have taken the lead in the AL East. Though he's better against lefties, he's still hit six of his home runs off right-handed pitchers and hits most of his home runs to the left side of the field which is where the weather is most favorable tonight (per Ballpark Pal).

Zach Davies heads to the mound for the Snakes while rocking a 1.16 HR/9 through his limited work this year (62.1 IP). He's not been very good, with virtually all of his Statcast pitching metrics in the lowest third among MLB's pitchers. Mountcastle's biggest weakness is his chase rate, which is not an area in which Davies excels. Plus, the D-Backs have a bottom-five bullpen in terms of home runs allowed so we've got chances to get one late as well. If he hits top three in the order, we could see five at-bats in this game. Our model gives Mountcastle a 21% probability of hitting a home run with a 6.5% edge in the odds. Let's ride.

⚾️ Predictions for Orioles vs. D-Backs
📈 Orioles vs. D-Backs Betting Preview

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Blue Jays vs. Rockies 8:40PM ET

LEG 2: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ HR (+300) with bet365

We're going back to an old flame from early in this season and that's Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerero Jr. Vladdy has 20 homers this season and while he had just three in August, two of them came in his last six games. He's seeing the ball well, making consistent contact and is regularly getting at least four at-bats in a game. His power speaks for itself, with his Avg Exit Velo, HardHit % and xSLG all in the top 10% of MLB. DimersBOT gives Valddy a beefy 33.1% chance to hit a home run and we still get an 8% edge in his odds.

He gets an elite matchup against the Rockies in Coors Field which is already a home run haven and it's even better when they send a guy like Chris Flexen to the mound. Flexen has a 2.39 HR/9 after allowing 19 home runs in just 72.2 innings of work so far this season, the second-worst mark out of any starter tonight. His last start was the first time he hadn't allowed a home run in his ten most recent starts. He gave up multiple homers in five of those. Add on top of that the Rockies' pitiful bullpen and we should see more than a couple balls leave the yard tonight. Hopefully, one of them belongs to our man.

⚾️ Predictions for Blue Jays vs. Rockies
📈 Blue Jays vs. Rockies Betting Preview

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MLB +2500 Home Run Parlay Friday, September 1, 2023

1️⃣ Ryan Mountcastle 1+ HR
2️⃣ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ HR

MORE: Calling Our Shot's Parlay for Friday

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