Home Run Predictions, Props and Parlay for MLB Friday [8/4/23]

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RELATED: Best Bets Today for All Sports - Friday, August 4

MLB +2825 Home Run Parlay For Friday 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Kyle Tucker 1+ HR	+400
Francisco Alvarez 1+ HR	+550

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

Friday MLB Parlay Analysis

Astros vs. Yankees 7:05PM ET

LEG 1: Kyle Tucker 1+ HR (+400) with DraftKings

One of our favorite players to target both in this column and our Home Run Round Robin, we look to Kyle Tucker once again. King Tuck has been killing it this season, hitting .299 with 19 home runs, including one just last night. He'd be in the AL MVP conversation if not for Shohei Ohtani's unicorn season. Tucker nukes all of his home runs to right field, just like he did last night, so we get the benefit of the short Yankee Stadium porch yet again this evening. He'd actually have 22 home runs if he hit them all in the Bronx house.

Tucker gets an incredibly favorable matchup against the Yankees' Luis Severino, once a rising potential star with the looks of an ace-to-be. Hampered by injuries and poor performance the last few seasons, Severino is in the midst of the worst season of his career. Through just 57.2 innings, he's allowed 15 home runs, including in five straight appearances. In nine career plate appearances against Seveirno, Tucker has a .286 batting average and a home run. This is a great spot tonight with favorable odds.

⚾️ Predictions for Astros vs. Yankees
📈 Astros vs. Yankees Betting Preview

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Mets vs. Orioles 7:05PM ET

LEG 2: Francisco Alvarez 1+ HR (+550) with DraftKings

Another guy we've turned to in the past more than a few times is the Mets' rookie catcher Francisco Alvarez. He's been excellent this season and would be right near the top of the NL Rookie of the Year race if Corbin Carroll wasn't literally running away with it. He's mashed 21 home runs even though he has a modest batting average of .236. He hits way better against righties though, with a .261 average and a whopping .961 OPS compared to his .519 against lefties. 

Alvarez faces the O's Dean Kremer who's allowed 23 home runs this year. He's allowed at least one home run in six of his last eight and seven of his last ten starts. His Barrel %, HardHit % and Avg Exit Velocity are all in the bottom 20th percentile of the league. As stated, Alvarez is much better against right-handed hitters, with 18 of his home runs coming against them so far this season. Back the rookie backstop in this great spot.

*Note: If Alvarez is scratched from the starting lineup, we'd stick with this matchup but pivot to Francisco Lindor (+500) or Pete Alonso (+450)

⚾️ Predictions for Mets vs. Orioles
📈 Braves vs. Brewers Betting Preview

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MLB +2825 Home Run Parlay Friday, August 5, 2023

1️⃣ Kyle Tucker 1+ HR
2️⃣ Francisco Alvarez 1+ HR

MORE: Calling Our Shot's Parlay for Friday

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