Home Run Predictions, Props and Parlay for MLB Friday [8/25/23]

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MLB +2910 Home Run Parlay For Friday 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Gunnar Henderson 1+ HR	+600
Luis Robert Jr. 1+ HR	+330

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

Friday MLB Parlay Analysis

Rockies vs. Orioles 7:05PM ET

LEG 1: Gunnar Henderson 1+ HR (+600) with FanDuel

Our first leg of tonight's parlay is stellar AL Rookie of the Year favorite Gunnar Henderson. Over the course of the season, Henderson has hit some 21 homers and some of them have been mammoth blasts. He's hit four so far this month and two of them in the past week. We're getting a serious weather boost in Camden Yards tonight (according to Ballpark Pal), particularly out to center and right-center field which is exactly where Hendeson hits most of his home runs. Our model gives him a 19% chance to hit one tonight, giving us a 5% edge in his odds.

He'll face the Rockies who send LHP Kyle Freeland to the mound. Freeland has given up 23 home runs through 129.0 innings of work at a rate of 1.60 HR/9. His Barrel % is in the bottom 33% of the league and his HardHit% is in the bottom 18%, both areas where Henderson excels. Now, he has allowed just 3 of his home runs to left-handed batters like Henderson, who has hit 19 of his home runs off righties. If that scares you off, take Adley Rutschman who is a switch-hitter. We considered him, but our model gives him a smaller 16% probability and his odds are shorter than Gunnar's.

⚾️ Predictions for Rockies vs. Orioles
📈 Rockies vs. Orioles Betting Preview

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Athletics vs. White Sox 7:10PM ET

LEG 2: Luis Robert Jr. 1+ HR (+330) with FanDuel

We'd be crazy not to target this game. The A's send RHP Zach Neal to the mound after calling him up from AAA earlier this month. In the minors, he allowed 17 home runs in just 66.2 innings. In the bigs, he's given up five in just 12.0 innings. Woof. On top of that, the Athletics have the second-worst bullpen in terms of home runs allowed with 69. 

Luis Robert, on the other hand, has 35 home runs this year with five in August and one last night. He's one of the best HR hitters in baseball, showing the ability to launch one anywhere in the park. His Barrel % (perfect launch angle and velocity) is in the 92nd percentile of MLB. The fact that he's not in the +200 range is astounding. The biggest weather boost tonight is out to left field which is Robert Jr's favorite corner of the park. A little side sprinkle on 2+ Home Runs on its own for Robert Jr. tonight just feels right, too.

⚾️ Predictions for Athletics vs. White Sox
📈 Athletics vs. White Sox Betting Preview

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MLB +2910 Home Run Parlay Friday, August 25, 2023

1️⃣ Gunnar Henderson 1+ HR
2️⃣ Luis Robert Jr. 1+ HR

MORE: Calling Our Shot's Parlay for Friday

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