Home Run Predictions, Props and Parlay for MLB Friday [8/18/23]

Now, we know you probably already have an account with one of the leading sportsbooks here in the US, but it definitely pays to have more than one funded account when betting on sports.

Find out which books are best, who has the best new customer offer, and how you can secure better odds and lines for all of your bets, below.

👉 The Best US Betting Sites 👈

RELATED: Best Bets Today for All Sports - Friday, August 18

MLB +2430 Home Run Parlay For Friday 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Nolan Arenado 1+ HR	+360
Nolan Jones 1+ HR	+450

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

Friday MLB Parlay Analysis

Mets vs. Cardinals 8:15PM ET

LEG 1: Nolan Arenado 1+ HR (+360) with FanDuel

We love a good themed parlay, especially when the data backs it up nicely. We start off in Busch Stadium with the Cardinals' third-baseman Nolan Arenado at +360. Arenado has hit 25 homers this year, with three so far in August. He hits the majority of his home runs to left field with a pair of oppo dingers this season. He's likely to be a popular bet tonight given his matchup against the MEts' spot-starter, Joey Lucchesi.

Lucchesi has made just a handful of starts this season at the big-league level, getting the call-up from AA to start tonight. He's given up four home runs in 22.1 innings with a .790 opponent OPS with all four homers coming off of righthanded batters. Arenado has hit three home runs in 24 plate appearances against Lucchesi, with a .909 SLG. It's possible Lucchesi only pitches a few innings as an opener, but if that's the case then we get the Mets' spotty bullpen that has allowed the third-most home runs this season with 63.

⚾️ Predictions for Mets vs. Cardinals
📈 Mets vs. Cardinals Betting Preview

---

White Sox vs. Rockies 10:10PM ET

LEG 2: Nolan Jones 1+ HR (+450) with FanDuel

Now let's head to our favorite park for part of the Nolan's Nukes Parlay, and task Rockies' rookie Nolan Jones to launch one out of Coors Field. Jones has hit 12 home runs this year in just at-bats to go with a .859 OPS which is excellent for a rookie. Our model DimersBOT gives Jones a 22% chance of hitting a home run tonight, giving us a 4% edge in the odds (should be around +375). He's hit some absolute nukes this year with shots of 469, 472 and 482 feet.

He's up against the White Sox who send embattled starter Michael Kopech to the mound amidst a season in which he's given up 25 home runs, tied with a handful of other starters for the fifth-most in the league. At a rate of 2.01 HR/9, he's one of the most vulnerable pitchers at the top of the board. His Barrel % (1st percentile), Max Exit Velocity (12th percentile) and HardHit % (26th percentile) are some of the lowest in the league among regular starters. He's given up at least one homer in seven of his last eight starts and has given up multiple home runs six times. Aside from the boost we get in Coors Field, we also get the White Sox bullpen which has given up the fourth-most HRs (60).

⚾️ Predictions for White Sox vs. Rockies
📈 White Sox vs. Rockies Betting Preview

---

MLB +2430 Home Run Parlay Friday, August 18, 2023

1️⃣ Nolan Arenado 1+ HR
2️⃣ Nolan Jones 1+ HR

MORE: Calling Our Shot's Parlay for Friday

Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on for every baseball game on Friday via our MLB Bet Hub, where we deliver you MLB predictions, suggested bets and MLB props, or check out the MLB Betting News section.

Remember to gamble responsibly and set limits on your betting activities. Set a budget for yourself and stick to it, and never bet more than you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.