Home Run Predictions, Props and Parlay for MLB Friday [8/11/23]

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MLB +2472 Home Run Parlay For Friday 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Kyle Tucker 1+ HR	+390
Will Smith 1+ HR	+425

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing

Friday MLB Parlay Analysis

Angels vs. Astros 8:10PM ET

LEG 1: Kyle Tucker 1+ HR (+390) with bet365

One of our favorite guys in this column and our daily round robins is Kyle Tucker and for good reason. He's hit 21 home runs this year with eight of them coming in the past month, and we've cashed in multiple times this year with his help, including a couple of times in the past week or so. The Astros are looking to to seize control of the AL West and Tucker is looking for his third dinger in four games. Tonight, he'll have a good matchup to do so.

The Angels send lefthander Reid Detmers to the mound who has given up 15 home runs at a rate of 1.28 HR/9. Tucker himself has faced Detmers 14 times in his career, with a .357 batting average. He's yet to hit a home run in their head-to-head matchups. Tucker has a significantly better average but fewer home runs against lefthanded pitchers so we're splitting the difference. The Angels also have a bottom-ten bullpen in terms of home runs allowed giving us more opportunity late in the game as well.

⚾️ Predictions for Angels vs. Astros
📈 Angels vs. Astros Betting Preview

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Rockies vs. Dodgers 10:10PM ET

LEG 2: Will Smith 1+ HR (+425) with bet365

We wish we could do a round robin for this game alone. Unfortunately, we can't, so to close off our parlay, we're turning to Dodgers' hard-hitting catcher Will Smith. Our man famously came up big for us earlier this season on his own bobblehead night and we're turning to him once again. Smith has clubbed 14 home runs this year, which is a little behind his career-best pace, but it's not for lack of skill. His .851 OPS is 19th-best in all of MLB, which is even more impressive for a catcher. He's been a little quiet lately, with most of his home runs coming in the first couple of months, but he's got a great matchup tonight.

DimersBOT is giving Smith a 24% chance to hit a home run in his matchup against the Rockies who will send one of our favorite targets, Austin Gomber, to the mound. Gomber has allowed 22 home runs this year at a rate of 2.01 per nine innings. As a southpaw, he's given up 15 of his home runs to righties like Will Smith, who also happens to be a decent bit better of a hitter against lefties with a 0.949 OPS. The Rockies' bullpen has also allowed 54 home runs this year, good enough for sixth-most in MLB.

*Note: If Will Smith is out of the starting lineup, we suggest plugging in Mookie Betts with 26% probability*

⚾️ Predictions for Rockies vs. Dodgers
📈 Rockies vs. Dodgers Betting Preview

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MLB +2472 Home Run Parlay Friday, August 11, 2023

1️⃣ Kyle Tucker 1+ HR
2️⃣ Will Smith 1+ HR

MORE: Calling Our Shot's Parlay for Friday

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