Home Run Cheat Sheet - HR Data, Stats, Matchups and More - Wednesday, September 27

Welcome to the Home Run Cheat Sheet! If you’re a regular Dimers user, you know there’s not much more we love to bet on than home runs, especially in the dog days of summer dominated by baseball. We use our cutting-edge predictive analytics machine combined with strong MLB betting trends to find both the best value and most likely home run hitters on any given day. Powered by our A.I. models, we run 1000s of simulations on every game in every slate to find out when the sportsbooks are wrong and how you can use that to your advantage to turn a long-term profit. You can find all of our home run props with an edge in our best MLB props today section.

However, even though we love our DimersBOT, a savvy bettor has no shortage of tools in their arsenal and knows that the more resources and data you can use to back up your bets, the stronger they’ll be. While nothing is ever a guarantee in sports betting, you’ll find yourself hitting your wagers more often than not when making full use of the resources available to you. Hopefully, this article will give you a little insight into how we arrive at our final decisions when putting together our HR Round Robins and two-leg HR parlay picks.

Check out our Best Bets for MLB and MLS, every single day!

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Home Run Cheat Sheet

For ease of use, this article will be broken into four main sections as follows:

• Today’s Starting Pitchers and their HR allowed data
• Hot hitters – most HR over last # of days
• The worst bullpens in terms of HR allowed
• Historical matchups – the hitters with the best HR and batting history

Be sure to cross-reference these lists with our MLB prop bets which continuously update throughout the day, as well as our Best Bets Today in All Sports for Wednesday, September 27.

🎯 Dinger Targets

Today’s starting pitchers with their total home runs and home runs per 9 allowed this season. Based on scheduled starters and subject to change.

PITCHER	OPPONENT	HR ALLOWED	IP	HR/9
OAK : Joey Estes (R) 0-1, ERA 9.64	MIN Twins	3	4.2	6.43
ARI : Brandon Pfaadt (R) 2-9, ERA 6.08	CHI White Sox	22	90.1	2.20
SD : Matt Waldron (R) 1-3, ERA 4.58	SF Giants	8	35.1	2.05
COL : Noah Davis (R) 0-3, ERA 8.77	LA Dodgers	5	25.2	1.79
WSH : Patrick Corbin (L) 10-14, ERA 5.18	BAL Orioles	32	175.1	1.64
CHC : Jameson Taillon (R) 8-10, ERA 5.18	ATL Braves	26	144.1	1.62
LAA : Griffin Canning (R) 7-7, ERA 4.39	TEX Rangers	21	121	1.56
LA : Emmet Sheehan (R) 3-1, ERA 5.13	COL Rockies	9	54.1	1.50
CIN : Andrew Abbott (L) 8-5, ERA 3.70	CLE Guardians	16	107	1.35
BOS : Brayan Bello (R) 12-10, ERA 4.11	TB Rays	22	151	1.31
MIL : Wade Miley (L) 9-4, ERA 3.20	STL Cardinals	16	115.1	1.25
BAL : Grayson Rodriguez (R) 6-4, ERA 4.49	WSH Nationals	16	116.1	1.24
STL : Zack Thompson (L) 5-6, ERA 4.57	MIL Brewers	8	61	1.18
TOR : Jose Berrios (R) 11-11, ERA 3.58	NY Yankees	24	183.2	1.18
MIN : Pablo Lopez (R) 11-8, ERA 3.65	OAK Athletics	24	189.2	1.14
SEA : Bryce Miller (R) 8-6, ERA 4.17	HOU Astros	16	127.100	1.13
TEX : Dane Dunning (R) 11-6, ERA 3.88	LA Angels	20	162.1	1.11
SF : Sean Manaea (L) 7-6, ERA 4.51	SD Padres	13	111.2	1.05
MIA : Braxton Garrett (L) 9-6, ERA 3.53	NY Mets	18	155.2	1.04
CLE : Shane Bieber (R) 5-6, ERA 3.91	CIN Reds	14	122	1.03
TB : Tyler Glasnow (R) 9-7, ERA 3.76	BOS Red Sox	13	115	1.02
PHI : Ranger Suarez (L) 4-6, ERA 3.89	PIT Pirates	13	120.1	0.97
NYY : Gerrit Cole (R) 14-4, ERA 2.75	TOR Blue Jays	20	200	0.90
PIT : Johan Oviedo (R) 9-14, ERA 4.12	PHI Phillies	17	172.2	0.89
NYM : Kodai Senga (R) 12-7, ERA 2.96	MIA Marlins	15	161.1	0.84
HOU : Framber Valdez (L) 12-11, ERA 3.39	SEA Mariners	18	194	0.84
ATL : Darius Vines (R) 1-0, ERA 4.40	CHI Cubs	1	14.1	0.64
DET : Tarik Skubal (L) 7-3, ERA 2.95	KC Royals	4	76.1	0.47
CHW : N/A 0-0, ERA 0.00	ARI D-Backs	-	-	0.00
KC : Jonathan Bowlan (R) 0-0, ERA 0.00	DET Tigers	-	-	0.00

MORE: MLB Game-By-Game Predictions

🔥 Hot Hitters 

These hitters have mashed a notable amount of home runs in recent weeks.

BATTER	TIMEFRAME (LAST # OF DAYS)	HR
R. Acuna Jr. (ATL)	Last 30	13
T. Turner (PHI)	Last 30	11
J. Soto (SD)	Last 30	10
M. Olson (ATL)	Last 30	10
N. Castellanos (PHI)	Last 15	7
C. Encarnacion-Strand (CIN)	Last 15	6

💥 Down Bad Bullpens

Starting pitcher yanked early or threw a gem? Not to worry, these bullpens give up plenty of late-game dingers!

TEAM	RANK	HR ALLOWED
WSH Nationals	1st	92
LA Angels	2nd	84
TEX Rangers	3rd	83
DET Tigers	T-4th	82
KC Royals	T-4th	82
OAK Athletics	6th	80
CHI White Sox	7th	79

MORE: Today's Hottest MLB Trends

🤝 Hello, Old Friend

These hitters have some reliable history against the starter they’ll be facing. Players with just one home run will typically require a minimum of 10 PAs and a .250 batting average unless otherwise noted. Sample sizes will vary.

BATTER	OPP. PITCHER	PLATE APPEARANCES	HR	AVG
Salvador Perez (KC)	Tarik Skubal (L)	16	3	.438
Aaron Judge (NYY)	Jose Berrios (R)	32	3	.407
Cavan Biggio (TOR)	Gerrit Cole (R)	21	2	.158
Francisco Lindor (NYM)	Braxton Garrett (L)	12	2	.333
Marcus Semien (TEX)	Griffin Canning (R)	22	2	.238
Jared Walsh (LAA)	Dane Dunning (R)	18	2	.462
Mike Trout (LAA)	Dane Dunning (R)	19	2	.412
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR)	Gerrit Cole (R)	33	2	.357
Paul Goldschmidt (STL)	Wade Miley (L)	23	2	.500

*Designates potential starters not yet confirmed

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