Home Run Cheat Sheet - HR Data, Stats, Matchups and More - Thursday, September 28

Welcome to the Home Run Cheat Sheet! If you’re a regular Dimers user, you know there’s not much more we love to bet on than home runs, especially in the dog days of summer dominated by baseball. We use our cutting-edge predictive analytics machine combined with strong MLB betting trends to find both the best value and most likely home run hitters on any given day. Powered by our A.I. models, we run 1000s of simulations on every game in every slate to find out when the sportsbooks are wrong and how you can use that to your advantage to turn a long-term profit. You can find all of our home run props with an edge in our best MLB props today section.

However, even though we love our DimersBOT, a savvy bettor has no shortage of tools in their arsenal and knows that the more resources and data you can use to back up your bets, the stronger they’ll be. While nothing is ever a guarantee in sports betting, you’ll find yourself hitting your wagers more often than not when making full use of the resources available to you. Hopefully, this article will give you a little insight into how we arrive at our final decisions when putting together our HR Round Robins and two-leg HR parlay picks.

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Home Run Cheat Sheet

For ease of use, this article will be broken into four main sections as follows:

• Today’s Starting Pitchers and their HR allowed data
• Hot hitters – most HR over last # of days
• The worst bullpens in terms of HR allowed
• Historical matchups – the hitters with the best HR and batting history

Be sure to cross-reference these lists with our MLB prop bets which continuously update throughout the day, as well as our Best Bets Today in All Sports for Thursday, September 28.

🎯 Dinger Targets

Today’s starting pitchers with their total home runs and home runs per 9 allowed this season. Based on scheduled starters and subject to change.

PITCHER	OPPONENT	HR ALLOWED	IP	HR/9
A. Smith-Shawver (ATL)	CHI Cubs	7	21.2	2.97
C. Flexen (COL)	LA Dodgers	23	96.1	2.15
L. Weaver (NYY)	TOR Blue Jays	27	119.2	2.04
S. Gipson-Long (DET) *GM2*	KC Royals	20	99.2	1.81
D. Kremer (BAL)	BOS Red Sox	27	167.1	1.45
D. Peterson (NYM)	MIA Marlins	16	104.0	1.38
L. Ortiz (PIT)	PHI Phillies	12	81.2	1.33
L. Gilbert (SEA)	TEX Rangers	27	184.2	1.32
C. Bassitt (TOR)	NY Yankees	28	192.1	1.31
C. Sale (BOS)	BAL Orioles	14	97.2	1.30
L. Medina (OAK)	MIN Twins	14	103.2	1.22
J. Luzardo (MIA)	NY Mets	22	171.1	1.16
T. Toussaint (CWS)	ARI D-Backs	10	83.0	1.08
D. Hudson (STL)	MIL Brewers	9	76.1	1.06
R. Yarbrough (LAD)	COL Rockies	10	85.2	1.06
C. Burnes (MIL)	STL Cardinals	22	189.2	1.05
Z. Wheeler (PHI)	PIT Pirates	20	188.0	0.96
B. Jarvis (ARI) *AAA stats*	CHI White Sox	10	106.1	0.85
J. Montgomery (TEX)	SEA Mariners	17	182.2	0.84
C. Ragans (KC) *GM2*	DET Tigers	7	89.2	0.71
M. Stroman (CHC)	ATL Braves	8	134.2	0.54
S. Gray (MIN)	OAK Athletics	8	180.0	0.40

MORE: MLB Game-By-Game Predictions

🔥 Hot Hitters 

These hitters have mashed a notable amount of home runs in recent weeks.

BATTER	TIMEFRAME (LAST # OF DAYS)	HR
R. Acuna Jr. (ATL)	Last 30	12
M. Olson (ATL)	Last 30	10
J. Soto (SD)	Last 30	10
Y. Alvarez (HOU)	Last 30	9
K. Schwarber (PHI)	Last 30	9
T. Turner (PHI)	Last 30	9
Corey Seager (TEX)	Last 30	9
M. Semien (TEX)	Last 30	9
N. Velasquez (KC)	Last 30	9
N. Castellanos (PHI)	Last 15	6
C. Encarnacion-Strand (CIN)	Last 15	6
A. Judge (NYY)	Last 7	5
J. Berti (MIA)	Last 7	4
T. Friedl (CIN)	Last 7	4
F. Lindor (NYM)	Last 7	4

💥 Down Bad Bullpens

Starting pitcher yanked early or threw a gem? Not to worry, these bullpens give up plenty of late-game dingers!

TEAM	RANK	HR ALLOWED
WSH Nationals	1st	92
LA Angels	2nd	86
KC Royals	T-3rd	83
TEX Rangers	T-3rd	83
DET Tigers	4th	82
OAK Athletics	5th	81

MORE: Today's Hottest MLB Trends

🤝 Hello, Old Friend

These hitters have some reliable history against the starter they’ll be facing. Players with just one home run will typically require a minimum of 10 PAs and a .250 batting average unless otherwise noted. Sample sizes will vary.

BATTER	OPP. PITCHER	PLATE APPEARANCES	HR	AVG
A. Hays (BAL)	C. Sale (BOS)	18	3	.333
R. Mountcastle (BAL)	C. Sale (BOS)	13	2	.231
C. Yelich (MIL)	D. Hudson (STL)	17	2	.300
E. Rosario (ATL)	M. Stroman (CHC)	9	2	.333
R. Devers (BOS)	D. Kremer (BAL)	17	2	.375
A. Verdugo (BOS)	D. Kremer (BAL)	19	2	.368
J. McCann (BAL)	C. Sale (BOS)	43	2	.250
J. Segura (MIA)	D. Perterson (NYM)	14	1	.333
C. Mullins (BAL)	C. Sale (BOS)	13	1	.333
A. Garcia (TEX)	L. Gilbert (SEA)	26	1	.208
D. Peralta (LAD)	C. Flexen (COL)	8	1	.714
J. Heim (TEX)	L. Gilbert (SEA)	20	1	.333
P. Goldschmidt (STL)	C. Burnes (MIL)	34	1	.323
A. Hicks (BAL)	C. Sale (BOS)	38	1	.371

*Designates potential starters not yet confirmed

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