Home Run Cheat Sheet - HR Data, Stats, Matchups and More - Thursday, September 21

Welcome to the Home Run Cheat Sheet! If you’re a regular Dimers user, you know there’s not much more we love to bet on than home runs, especially in the dog days of summer dominated by baseball. We use our cutting-edge predictive analytics machine combined with strong MLB betting trends to find both the best value and most likely home run hitters on any given day. Powered by our A.I. models, we run 1000s of simulations on every game in every slate to find out when the sportsbooks are wrong and how you can use that to your advantage to turn a long-term profit. You can find all of our home run props with an edge in our best MLB props today section.

However, even though we love our DimersBOT, a savvy bettor has no shortage of tools in their arsenal and knows that the more resources and data you can use to back up your bets, the stronger they’ll be. While nothing is ever a guarantee in sports betting, you’ll find yourself hitting your wagers more often than not when making full use of the resources available to you. Hopefully, this article will give you a little insight into how we arrive at our final decisions when putting together our HR Round Robins and two-leg HR parlay picks.

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Home Run Cheat Sheet

For ease of use, this article will be broken into four main sections as follows:

• Today’s Starting Pitchers and their HR allowed data
• Hot hitters – most HR over last # of days
• The worst bullpens in terms of HR allowed
• Historical matchups – the hitters with the best HR and batting history

Be sure to cross-reference these lists with our MLB prop bets which continuously update throughout the day, as well as our Best Bets Today in All Sports for Thursday, September 21.

🎯 Dinger Targets

Today’s starting pitchers with their total home runs and home runs per 9 allowed this season. Based on scheduled starters and subject to change.

PITCHER	OPPONENT	HR ALLOWED	IP	HR/9
SF : Kyle Harrison (L) 1-1, ERA 5.18	LA Dodgers	7	24.1	2.61
LA : Emmet Sheehan (R) 3-1, ERA 5.44	SF Giants	9	49.2	1.65
LAA : Griffin Canning (R) 7-7, ERA 4.42	TB Rays	21	116	1.63
WSH : Jake Irvin (R) 3-6, ERA 4.34	ATL Braves	20	118.1	1.52
CLE : Hunter Gaddis (R) 2-1, ERA 4.85	BAL Orioles	6	39	1.38
NYM : David Peterson (L) 3-8, ERA 5.22	PHI Phillies	15	100	1.35
MIL : Wade Miley (L) 8-4, ERA 3.38	STL Cardinals	16	109.1	1.32
BAL : Grayson Rodriguez (R) 6-4, ERA 4.53	CLE Guardians	16	111.1	1.30
OAK : Luis Medina (R) 3-9, ERA 5.56	DET Tigers	14	98.2	1.28
TOR : Jose Berrios (R) 11-10, ERA 3.49	NY Yankees	23	178	1.16
STL : Miles Mikolas (R) 7-12, ERA 4.84	MIL Brewers	23	182.1	1.14
TB : Zach Eflin (R) 15-8, ERA 3.44	LA Angels	18	167.2	0.97
PHI : Ranger Suarez (L) 3-6, ERA 3.80	NY Mets	12	113.2	0.95
NYY : Gerrit Cole (R) 13-4, ERA 2.81	TOR Blue Jays	20	192	0.94
CHC : Kyle Hendricks (R) 6-7, ERA 3.91	PIT Pirates	13	126.2	0.93
PIT : Johan Oviedo (R) 8-14, ERA 4.27	CHI Cubs	17	166.2	0.92
ATL : Max Fried (L) 7-1, ERA 2.64	WSH Nationals	6	71.2	0.76
DET : Tarik Skubal (L) 6-3, ERA 3.25	OAK Athletics	4	69.1	0.52

MORE: MLB Game-By-Game Predictions

🔥 Hot Hitters 

These hitters have mashed a notable amount of home runs in recent weeks.

BATTER	TIMEFRAME (LAST # OF DAYS)	HR
K. Schwarber (PHI)	Last 30	12
T. Turner (PHI)	Last 30	12
R. Acuna Jr. (ATL)	Last 30	11
R. Lewis (MIN)	Last 30	11
J. Rodriguez (SEA)	Last 30	10
M. Olson (ATL)	Last 30	9

💥 Down Bad Bullpens

Starting pitcher yanked early or threw a gem? Not to worry, these bullpens give up plenty of late-game dingers!

TEAM	RANK	HR ALLOWED
WSH Nationals	1st	87
TEX Rangers	2nd	83
OAK Athletics	3rd	79
DET Tigers	4th	78
KC Royals	T-5th	77
CHI White Sox	T-5th	77
BOS Red Sox	T-5th	77

MORE: Today's Hottest MLB Trends

🤝 Hello, Old Friend

These hitters have some reliable history against the starter they’ll be facing. Players with just one home run will typically require a minimum of 10 PAs and a .250 batting average unless otherwise noted. Sample sizes will vary.

BATTER	OPP. PITCHER	PLATE APPEARANCES	HR	AVG
Aaron Judge (NYY)	Jose Berrios (R)	29	3	0.417
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (BOS)	Gerrit Cole (R)	33	2	0.357
Paul Goldschmidt (STL)	Wade Miley (L)	20	2	0.471
Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT)	Kyle Hendricks (R)	18	2	0.444
Rowdy Tellez (MIL)	Miles Mikolas (R)	15	2	0.357
Cavan Biggio (TOR)	Gerrit Cole (R)	18	2	0.188

*Designates potential starters not yet confirmed

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