Home Run Cheat Sheet - HR Data, Stats, Matchups and More - Monday, July 17

Welcome to the Home Run Cheat Sheet! If you’re a regular Dimers user, you know there’s not much more we love to bet on than home runs, especially in the dog days of summer dominated by baseball. We use our cutting-edge predictive analytics machine to find both the best value and most likely home run hitters on any given day. Powered by our A.I. models, we run 1000s of simulations on every game in every slate to find out when the sportsbooks are wrong and how you can use that to your advantage to turn a long-term profit.

However, even though we love our DimersBOT, a savy bettor has no shortage of tools in their arsenal and knows that the more resources and data you can use to back up your bets, the stronger they’ll be. While nothing is ever a guarantee in sports betting, you’ll find yourself hitting your wagers more often than not when making full use of the resources available to you. Hopefully, this article will give you a little insight into how we arrive at our final decisions when putting together our HR Round Robins and two-leg HR Parlays.

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Home Run Cheat Sheet

For ease of use, this article will be broken into four main sections as follows:

• Today’s Starting Pitchers who have allowed the most HR
• Hot hitters – most HR over last X games
• The five worst bullpens in terms of HR allowed
• Historical matchups – the hitters with the best HR history

Be sure to cross-reference these lists with our Best Home Run Props, continuously updating throughout the day!

🎯 Dinger Targets

Monday’s starting pitchers who have given up the most home runs this season

Pitcher	Matchup	HR Allowed	IP	HR/9
Jordan Lyles (KC)	DET Tigers	20	96.2	1.84
Griffin Canning (LAA)	NY Yankees	15	74	1.82
Drew Smyly (CHC)	WSH Nationals	15	94	1.44
Mackenzie Gore (WSH)	CHI Cubs	14	89.2	1.51
Grayson Rodriguez (BAL)	LA Dodgers	13	45.1	2.59
Logan Webb (SF)	CIN Reds	13 (career-high)	126	0.93
Jesus Luzardo (MIA)	STL Cardinals	12	109.1	0.99
Luis Severino (NYY)	LA Angels	11	42.2	2.35
Brandon Williamson (CIN)	SF Giants	8	46.2	1.56

 

🔥 Hot Hitters 

These hitters have mashed a notable amount of home runs in recent weeks

Batter	Timeframe (last # of days)	HR
Shohei Ohtani	Last 30	12
Matt Olson	Last 30	11
Luis Robert	Last 30	10
Manny Machado	Last 15	6
Mookie Betts	Last 15	5
Cody Bellinger	Last 15	5
Kerry Carpenter	Last 7	3
Triston Casas	Last 7	3
Rafael Devers	Last 7	3
Chas McCormick	Last 7	3
Kyle Schwarber	Last 7	3

💥 Down Bad Bullpens

Starting pitcher yanked early or threw a gem? Not to worry, these bullpens give up plenty of late-game dingers.

TEAM	RANK	HR ALLOWED
Oakland Athletics	T-1st	53
Washington Nationals	T-1st	53
New York Mets	2nd	47
Chicago White Sox	3rd	46
Detroit Tigers	T-4th	45
Tampa Bay Rays	T-4th	45

 

🤝 Hello, Old Friend

These hitters have some reliable history against the starter they’ll be facing. Sample sizes will vary.

Batter	Opposing Pitcher	Plate Appearances	HR	AVG
Teoscar Hernandez (SEA)	Sonny Gray (MIN)	13	2	.154
Lane Thomas (WSH)	Drew Smyly (CHC)	9	1	.444
Mike Moustakas (LAA)	Luis Severino (NYY)	7	1	.429
Miguel Cabrera (DET)	Jordan Lyles (KC)	15	1	.400
Kerry Carpenter (DET)	Jordan Lyles (KC)	6	1	.400
Robbie Grossman (TEX)	Shane McClanahan (TB)	8	1	.286
Shohei Ohtani (LAA)	Luis Severino (NYY)	5	1	.250