Who's ready to golf?

It's been a while but with some of the top-ranked golfers back in action for the first time since September, it's only right we fire up the Dimers' Golf Predictor for the Hero World Challenge.

Betting on winners and who will finish in the Top 5, 10 and 20 markets gets all the attention around golf tournaments, but this tournament is a very small field, just 20 golfers, so those markets aren't as lucrative as in larger field tournaments, so we're turning to the 3-Ball Matchups.

For our model's best picks in those markets, check out our full Hero World Challenge Predictions, exclusively part of Dimers Pro.

RELATED: Our Best Bets for the 2024 Hero World Challenge

To craft this 3-Ball Parlay We have an in-house tool designed for pitting golfers against one another and simulating the results. We can see who will finish higher in their head-to-head matchup, either after Round 1 or over the course of the entire tournament.

With a handy "Fair Odds" to "Percentages" toggle, you can always check to see if there's value in any given matchup. We're going with 3-ball matchups rather than head-to-head, but we can use our tool just the same, and do some additional calculation to find each golfer's true probability of beating the other two.

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2024 Hero World Challenge Golf Betting Preview

Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks.

This week's special event takes place at Albany, Bahamas, a par-72 course that stretches 7,302 yards. We revealed tee times for every golfer, as well as our Top 5 projections earlier this week.

These PGA predictions are sourced from our powerful predictive analytics model that returned plenty of winners in 2024, including an 80-1 winner with Wyndham Clark at Pebble Beach, cashed our +627 parlay at The Masters, a +1075 3-ball parlay at the Memorial and correctly predicted a pair of Scottie Scheffler comeback wins, including at the Travelers Championship, to name a few.

+575 3-Ball Hero World Challenge Parlay on DraftKings

To make this parlay, we'll be using the 3-ball matchups available at DraftKings as they have our preferred options available. We'll enter golfers into our H2H Predictor in groups of 2, select the Tournament-long option, and see which golfer gets the advantage for the weekend. The golfer with the best chance to beat the other two gets our pick.

MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings

Leg 1: Russell Henley to beat Wyndham Clark and Tom Kim (+155)

Russell Henley is our model's second-most likely winner of this tournament at 9.4%, presenting value with his +1400 odds implying just 6.7%.

We just need him to win this group however, and he's strongly projected to do so.

At over 60% to beat Wyndyham Clark and Tom Kim individually, he's the clear favorite in this trio. As ties will result in a push and not a loss for either leg, we can use the product of his two win probabilities in individual matchups to determine his overall probability to win the group.

That comes out to 0.413, or 41.3%, a significant advantage both over the other two golfers and a little against the books, whose +155 odds imply just a 39.2% chance.

Henley was great this year, with seven Top 10 finishes among larger fields and finishing T4th in the FedExCup.

The PGA Power is Yours:  Build Your Head-to-Head Parlays

Leg 2: Aaron Rai to beat Cameron Young and Keegan Bradley (+165)

Our second leg is on Englishman Aaron Rai to best Cameron Young and Keegan Bradley in a closer matchup than our first leg.

Rai still gets an advantage, 56.4% over Young and an effective coin flip over Bradley at 50.4%, however the probability of a tie gives us closer to 61% and 55% of Rai not losing, which is key.

Rai picked up his first win of this career this past season, with a late-season victory at The Memorial, and five other top 10s along the way. He's got a strong approach (seventh in Strokes Gained and an accurate driver (sixth).

By applying the formula above, we're getting a  28.4% probability of Rai winning this 3-ball matchup.

Hero World Challenge Parlay

+575

Bet $25
Payout $168.75Bet $25, Payout $168.75

Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions

As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions  for every tournament, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.

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