Good Call or Bad Call: the 5 Most-Bet NFL Win Totals

Can you feel it? The 2023-24 NFL season is inching closer by the day. As of this writing, we are less than a month away from kickoff between the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions on Thursday, September 7. We can’t wait to dive into betting on this season, from parlays and futures to TD round Robins and more, this year has the potential to be our best yet. Win totals are out for the 2023-24 NFL season! Get an early jump on your bets with our breakdown of the five most-bet win totals in the NFL. 

MORE: Three Early NFL Futures Bets to Make Now

Before we get started, we have to recommend that you head over to our revamped Best Sportsbooks section which features an all-new user-friendly look, complete with in-depth reviews of every online sportsbook. Even better, you’ll be able to see which books are available to you specifically along with every exclusive promo offer you can take advantage of. The NFL is far and away the most popular sport in the United States for betting and there are countless daily and weekly promotions throughout the season. Having access to every possible book you can is crucial to turning a long-term profit over the season and beyond.

Find out which books are best, who has the best new customer offer, and how you can secure better odds and lines for all of your soccer bets, below.

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The Top 5 Most Popular Win Totals Bets

TEAM	% OF HANDLE	% OF BETS
NE Patriots	91%	83%
KC Chiefs	99%	77%
PIT Steelers	95%	89%
BUF Bills	91%	67%
GB Packers	71%	72%

New England Patriots Over 7.5 Wins

The most popular win totals bet in the NFL right now is the New England Patriots, but there's reason to believe this is misguided. For starters, New England plays in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL, with the Bills, Dolphins and Jets all looking competitive. To that point, DimersBOT gives New England just a lowly 5% chance to win the division. Someone has to bottom out and finish last, and the Pats are by far the most likely team to do so. We're fading the public here.

DimersBOT Win Projection: 6 wins

% Chance of Over 7.5 Wins: 39.1%

Good Call or Bad Call: Bad Call

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

Kansas City Chiefs Over 11.5 Wins

It's no surprise to see America's favorite quarterback Patrick Mahomes and his Chiefs high on a list of most popular Overs. Unfortunately, we can't say our model believes this is a wise play. After our simulations, the most frequent finish for the Chiefs was 11 wins, and 56% of the time they finished with Under 11.5 victories. We won't be surprised to see the Chiefs back in the Super Bowl, but we will be surprised if they run through the regular season in dominant fashion. Fade!

DimersBOT Win Projection: 11

% Chance of Over 11.5 Wins: 43.6%

Good Call or Bad Call: Bad Call

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

Pittsburgh Steelers Over 8.5 Wins

Next up is the Pittsburgh Steelers. It has been awhile since Mike Tomlin's franchise has factored deep into a playoff chase. Steelers fans are hopeful this could be the year, with the Pickett-Pickens connection emerging. Unfortunately, DimersBOT isn't buying it, with the average number of wins over the course of our many NFL simulations resulting in just Under the 8.5 win total Vegas set their line at. This is a bad call, but barely.

DimersBOT Win Projection: 8 

% Chance of Over 8.5 Wins: 47.3%

Good Call or Bad Call: Bad Call

RELATED: AFC East Division Preview

Buffalo Bills Over 10.5 Wins

You may be thinking to yourself...does DimersBOT ever LIKE an Over? Enter the Buffalo Bills, who once again have dreams of a Super Bowl run with Josh Allen captaining an extremely talented roster. Their line is set at 10.5 wins, and over the course of our simulations, the Bills won 11 or more wins 51% of the time. This isn't the largest edge you can find when betting NFL win totals before the season, but it's still a good call.

DimersBOT Win Projection: 11

% Chance of Over 10.5 Wins: 50.9%

Good Call or Bad Call: Good Call

MORE: Week 1 Game-by-Game Predictions

Green Bay Packers Over 7.5 Wins

The final of our five most popular win total bets is the Green Bay Packers Over 7.5 wins. With Aaron Rodgers out, it's a transitional season in Green Bay as Jordan Love take over. Luckily for Packers fans, there's a talented young group of receivers like Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs to help shoulder the burden. After our many simulations, the Packers averaged eight wins this season the most, going Over 7.5 a whopping 56% of the time. This is our favorite bet of the most popular win totals.

DimersBOT Win Projection: 8

% Chance of Over 7.5 Wins: 55.5%

Good Call or Bad Call: Good Call

Get a head start on your NFL wagers with our full slate of NFL tools, all powered by our cutting-edge predictive analytics model known as ‘DimersBOT!’ We run 1000s of simulations for every game all season long to help identify where the books are mispricing their odds, all to help you turn a profit.

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