How Dimers Correctly Predicted Scottie Scheffler's Comeback at RBC Heritage

In the midst of one of the hottest streaks in golf we’ve seen in quite some time, Scottie Scheffler once again showed the world why he’s deserving of pre-tournament odds to win around +400.

Even against a slow start (by Scheffler standards) and an early lead by some sneaky golfers in a no-cut event at the RBC Heritage, simply no one is safe from the World No. 1. Collectively, the PGA TOUR’s other golfers can breathe a sigh of relief knowing this week’s team event will give them a brief reprieve from having to look over their shoulder for Scottie or play catch up.

For those who are betting on golf, these short odds for Scheffler ahead of each tournament present a debacle – pay a premium price for one golfer (albeit the world’s best) to beat something like 100 others, or bet against his elite talent and look for a longer odds value play? 

We’re here to show you why with Dimers Pro, decision making comes easy. Whether using our Head-to-Head Matchups tool or looking for winners and placement value.

Take a quick rewind with us to the days before RBC Heritage and see why our Golf Predictor tool is an absolute must-have for your betting arsenal to find value and rack up big wins.

Pre-Tournament Odds to Win

As mentioned, Scottie Scheffler is debuting with obscenely short odds to win on the PGA TOUR, and this past week was no exception.

Sitting at +450 to win on DraftKings, Scheffler was the favorite to win by a huge margin, the next shortest odds on Xander Schauffele at +1200. We said he was rightfully the favorite, even at those odds, as our massive 24.8% win probability identified that he should be +300 at best.

We also identified one other potential winner with an edge – Wyndham Clark at +3500 and a 3.8% probability. A favorite of ours this year after cashing us an 80-1 outright winner, Clark gave us the option to get the best of both worlds by backing Scottie to win, and playing a Wyndham Clark Ladder Play, which ultimately cashed in Top 20, Top 10 and Top 5 winners.

Did you get on our RBC Ladder Play over the weekend?

✅ Top 20 +115
✅ Top 10 +300
✅ Top 5 +700

Not too bad at all 😎 https://t.co/tlFSU8jhNn

— Dimers Sports Analytics (@DimersCom) April 22, 2024

After Round 1

A relatively slow start for Scheffler found him sitting in a 12-way tie at T26 after carding a -2 in Round 1.

At this point, J.T. Poston held a two-stroke lead in first place with a -8, six whole strokes better than Scottie. Poston got +700 odds to win and a 10.2% probability from our model, while our Golf Predictions said Scheffler had better odds at +1000 and a higher probability at 14.2%.

Even at six strokes back, our model still backed Scheffler as the better value and better choice to win, with a higher win probability than the other 11 golfers tied with him combined. This proved to be correct.

However, users without Dimers Pro can only see the Top 5 predictions for each market, meaning Scottie Scheffler and his +1000 value was only available to Dimers Pro users. And a $10 bet on Scottie Scheffler at these odds means your profits would have covered ten weeks of Dimers Pro.

After Round 2

It took just one day for Scheffler to close that six-stroke gap, finish Day 2 at -8 overall, sitting at T10 and just three strokes back of the leader. He was now +600 and at 18.0%.

This presented a unique betting opportunity for smart bettors. At +600 to win, Scheffler had the third-shortest odds behind T5 Ludvig Aberg (+500) and T1 Collin Morikawa (+400). However, he was +1500 to be the third-round leader.

Effectively, the books were saying that he had a strong chance to win, but that it would take him two round to do it. Well, after Scottie shot a -6 on Day 2, what’s to say he couldn’t outpace the field on Moving Day?

He did just that, shooting his best round of the weekend with a -8 to seize the lead, cash a +1500 Third Round Leader bet and go from +600 at the start of the day when we said to bet on him to -1400 to win by day’s end.

Again, a $10 bettor would have covered more than two months of Dimers Pro at less than $1/day with a single Scottie Scheffler bet. Learn more here.

TLDR – Find Value Every PGA TOUR Event with Dimers Pro

In summary, we used our Golf Predictions to correctly identify value in Scottie Scheffler as a +450 favorite to win RBC Heritage, as well as Wyndham Clark to place in each finished tier (Top 5, Top 10 and Top 20).

Despite a slow start, Scottie Scheffler proved that Dimers' Golf Predictions accurately found pre-tournament value and again throughout the weekend when we said to bet on him at +1000 and +600.

Wyndham Clark cashed each of his placements at +700, +300 and +115 as well as finishing T3, proving his winner value of +3500 was a smart bet.

You can find these opportunities every single week via unlimited site access with Dimers Pro.

Dimers and Responsible Gambling

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