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Genesis Invitational Predictions: Our Best Bets for PGA TOUR Betting at Torrey Pines
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Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
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We return to Torrey Pines for the second time on the PGA TOUR this year at The Genesis Invitational. Check out our best winner picks and placement bets from our predictive model.
The 2025 PGA TOUR season continues with The Genesis Invitational, running from Thursday, February 13 through Sunday, February 16.
This year's event will be taking place on the South Course at Torrey Pines in La Jolla, CA rather than the traditional location of Riviera Country Club due to the L.A. wildfires.
Our predictive analytics model has run 1000s of simulations with the field in this tournament, identifying intriguing bets in the winner and placement markets. Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks.
Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are sourced from our powerful Dimers Pro predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2024and is off to a productive start this year, identifying multiple mid-tournament winners in 2025 like Harris English and Sepp Straka at longshot odds.
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Get 20% off Dimers Pro with code 20GOLF Get Dimers Pro Who Will Win the 2025 Genesis Invitational?
Here are the five most likely winners of this week's Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines, the result of simulating the tournament 10,000 times via our A.I. models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5/10/20:
| GOLFER | WIN | TOP 5 | TOP 10 | TOP 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 19.6% | 46.6% | 63.7% | 80.1% |
| Collin Morikawa | 6.5% | 25.6% | 40.6% | 61.8% |
| Rory McIlroy | 5.5% | 23.1% | 38.2% | 58.6% |
| Justin Thomas | 4.4% | 18.2% | 32.1% | 52.2% |
| Adam Scott | 3.7% | 15.7% | 28.4% | 49.2% |
The Genesis Invitational Betting Preview
As mentioned, we're heading back to Torrey Pines for the second time this year after the Farmers Insurance Open, with the action taking place on the South Course throughout the weekend.
It's our latest signature event with a $20,000,000 purse up for grabs and 700 FedExCup points.
A field of just 70 golfers will duke it out on the South Course, a par-72 that runs 7,765 yards where long, accurate driving will have an advantage as golfers aim to minimize their exposure to the rough amongst the tight fairways and small greens.
The reigning champ of this event is Hideki Matsuyama, though we're on a different course - he finished T32 (+1) at Torrey Pines last month where just three holes on the South Course saw an average score below par.
MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings
Best Bets to Win the 2025 Genesis Invitational
Sepp Straka (+5000 on FanDuel)
First up in our winner picks is this year's FedExCup points leader, Sepp Straka.
Straka's off to a hot start with a pair of 15th-place finishes, a win at The American Express (identified by our model) and a T7 at Pebble Beach. He finished strong at the WM Phoenix Open last weekend and could have been in Top 5 contention if he had a better first round.
The Austrian has had mixed results at Torrey Pines - a pair of cuts and a T32 and T16 in his four most recent outings, but his swing this year feels made for this course. He's been accurate and is Top 5 in Approach on TOUR. His putting is decent, 43rd in Strokes Gained, but the small greens at Torrey Pines should offset that a bit.
Our model projects Straka with a 2.5% probability to win this weekend, which translates to fair odds of +3900, giving us a nice edge with his best price of +5000.
Russell Henley (+6000 on FanDuel)
Next up is a DimersBOT favorite who we nearly cashed in on at Pebble Beach after his first-round lead before he ultimately finished T5. That was Russell Henley's second Top 10 this year and he's finished higher in each event he's played - T30, T10 and then T5.
He doesn't have much history at Torrey Pines so we'll be leaning on his form this year which has him Top 15 in Driving Accuracy, Approach and Putting, a path that lines up well among the narrow fairways on the South Course.
His 3.0% probability gives us fair odds of +3230, nearly half the price of what we're getting on the books at +6000, making him an ideal play on value.
Adam Scott (+7500 on FanDuel)
This is the second time we're on Adam Scott this year, who could have cashed us a longshot Top 10 at Pebble Beach if not for a first-round 74 - he finished that tournament with rounds of 69 and 64, getting better throughout the weekend.
Still, he's finished T15 and T22 this year in his two events, a very strong start, thanks to his distance off the tee and solid iron play.
In his last two events at Torrey Pines, he netted a T10 and T2 finish and his last win was at The Genesis Invitational in 2020, though on its original course.
He's actually our best value of all these winners, as he gets a 3.7% probability to win, the fifth-highest according to our model, representing fair odds of just +2600 for a massive edge. He's as low as +6000 on some books for even greater value at this price.
Best Top 20 Bets for the 2025 Genesis Invitational
In addition to the outright winner picks with value, we've got a few placement bets to consider for this week's Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines as well. As well as being value plays as single wagers, consider playing these in a parlay to potentially rack up some serious profits.
Taylor Pendrith to Finish Top 20 (+130 on DraftKings)
Quietly one of the most consistent golfers so far this year, Taylor Pendrith is also a sneaky play for a winner if you've got an eye on the Canadian.
In four events, he's finished T13, T45, T7 and T9. That T7 was right here at Torrey Pines less than a month ago at the Farmers Insurance Open, where he also finished T9 last year.
In Strokes Gained, he's 25th in Driving Accuracy, 5th in Total Driving, 3rd Off the Tee and 4th Tee to Green. His weakest area is his putting, which could be countered by the small greens at the South Course.
He's trending in the right direction this year and gets a 45.3% probability to secure his fourth Top 20 finish this year.
Adam Scott to Finish Top 20 (+190 on DraftKings)
If you read this article weekly, this won't surprise you, as when we have a great edge on a winner, he often has excellent value throughout his placement markets.
Scott gets an edge in the Top 5, Top 10 and Top 20 markets, so he's worth a ladder play if you're up for sprinkling a total of 1 unit across his various finishes.
Our model has Scott at nearly a 50/50 chance to finish Top 20, 49.3% to be exact, giving us fair odds of about +100 against his odds of +190 on the books.
Russell Henley to Finish Top 20 (+150 on DraftKings)
Like Scott, we're getting an edge on Henley's placements as well, though not quite as much.
Henley gets a 47.3% probability for a Top 20 this weekend, something he's done in his past two events in larger fields. He's got the potential to climb all the way up this leaderboard and at a 47.3% probability, our model says he's a bet at odds of +110 or better.
These aren't the only value plays on the board, but our selected ones based on our model's recommendations. Check out our full predictions for The Genesis Invitational to find your favorite plays, with more edges to be found throughout the tournament!
Get 20% off Dimers Pro with code 20GOLF Get Dimers Pro Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2025 PGA TOUR
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- PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament
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Dimers and Responsible Gambling
Please remember to enjoy gambling responsibly. Responsible gambling means setting limits, staying in control, and understanding that luck is just part of the game. Make informed choices, set a budget, and know when to take a break. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by Nick Slade as part of our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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