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Free Soccer Picks and Predictions – European Leagues, Week Ending Sunday December 5
Prospector Sam is here with your free soccer picks for this weekend's European soccer action.
One of the interesting things about gambling you learn over time is that some of the best value you can find comes from obscure bets. That reality is prevalent in popular American sports, where much of the value is in small handle props because books don’t adjust odds well or have time to figure out the perfect number for each of those lines. I have a friend who works for a large sportsbook setting numbers, and I can definitively say that it is not as sophisticated of an operation as you might expect.
Why does that matter here? Well, I think that soccer, and specifically international soccer outside England, is a great place to find value as well. Books in the US just don’t take enough money on Danish soccer to spend that much time adjusting lines, and it leads to some spots where great value can be had. For example, last week I railed about how the Basel ML, which I bet at +100 and got up close to +130 by game times, was crazy against the last place team in the League. And, as yours truly expected, Basel looked much better and won 3-1 without ever breaking much of a sweat. While I put a lot of effort and time into the Prem and I love those picks as well, the range of options and value in these articles can sometimes be better because of those opportunities, and you shouldn't sleep on these bets just because you may not have heard of the teams.
With that, let’s put this theory into practice and go win some money! ⤵️
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Free La Liga Picks For Week 16, 2021-22
Sevilla vs. Villareal, Sat Dec 4, 3:00pm (ET)
Villareal are a bit of a puzzle. On paper they should be a decent team and they’ve done fairly well in the Champions League, but then you watch them in La Liga and it all goes to shit. They sit 12th place and are barely grabbing more than a point per game with teams like Osasuna above them, and their play pretty much reflects that. Sevilla, on the other hand, are humming along like normal, happily sitting in 4th place with a +13 GD through 14 games and a pretty damn good track record at home. That’s why, as I’ve not hid well at all (or even tried to), we’re taking a shot at the Sevilla ML. This game isn’t quite as lopsided as the table suggests, but, at home, I think Sevilla are a comfortable favorite to take all 3 points and I’d expect the line somewhere near the -150 mark. Here, we’re getting an Even spread which means a 1:1 payout for our money, and I think that’s some damn good value. Sevilla are tough to break down and their goal scoring record has been solid this year, which gives me a lot of confidence that they can hold off Villareal and finish their chances when they find them. Take the perennial Europa League favorites to win.
⛏️ PICK: Sevilla moneyline (+100)
Free Ligue 1 Picks For Week 17, 2021-22
Lens vs. PSG, Sat Dec 4, 3:00pm (ET)
Everything about this bet feels boring and lazy, but there are just some numbers you can’t pass up. That’s what we have here with PSG. PSG aren’t in the best form at the moment and played one of the most excruciatingly boring games I’ve ever seen against Nice in midweek, but they have far more talent than Lens and have the squad depth to handle the congested fixture schedule way better than a team named after a part of your glasses you go to get fixed when it’s scratched (seriously, what’s up with all these weird French towns? Brest, Lens, Nice, Angers). There’s a lot of uncertainty around the Parisians, particularly in their coaching situation, but this team has a +20 GD and has pulled 41 of 48 points so far in the League 1 season. While Lens is having a solid year so far (high quality lenses? I’ll see myself out…), they just don’t have the talent to hold up here and I’ll take PSG -160 against almost any team in France. Be boring and take the solid odds.
⛏️ PICK: PSG moneyline (-160)
Free Belgian First Division A Picks For Week 17, 2021-22
Beerschot vs. Antwerp, Sun Dec 5, 7:30am (ET)
Remember when I said something about finding strange (and valuable) odds on Leagues that don’t get a lot of action? Well, this is part 1 of 2 for testing out that premise, because I haven’t got a clue how Antwerp are +125 to win this match. Now, if you’re wondering why we’ve made it to Belgium or whether getting into the depths of second tier European leagues is a good idea, don’t worry. Uncle Sam watches entirely too much soccer and knows his stuff, so blind faith in me is all you need. Antwerp sit 2nd in the Jupiler League, which is a bit misleading because there’s a lot of congestion at the top of the table, but shows they’re certainly a top half side at worst. As for Beerschot? Aside from a delightfully funny name, not much else is going well. Since their promotion they’ve managed just 9 points in 16 games and sit dead last in the table. So, with a 16 team gap between these two sides, you would expect the line to be much more skewed towards Antwerp than it is, and I think we’ve got tremendous value here on a side who’s closer to -150 in my eyes. Take Antwerp to come in and handle business.
⛏️ PICK: Antwerp moneyline (+125)
Free Swiss Super League Picks For Week 16, 2021-22
Zurich vs. Luzern, Sat Dec 4, 12:00pm (ET)
I’m really not trying to pick on Luzern. As they say, punching down is a bad idea and taking swings at Luzern is like finding an injured bug and deciding to pick off it’s legs. But this team is very very very not good (did I use enough verys?) and they happen to be facing a Zurich side who sits top of the table in Switzerland. For anyone who watches soccer, that sounds like a pretty lopsided game that would have some pretty weak odds, and normally you would be correct. Here, though, Zurich is just -120 on the money line which makes about as much sense as hiring me to tailor your suit (hint: don’t do it). Zurich are admittedly not he best team in Switzerland (probably 3rd best) and this isn’t a unit that’s going to wow you with their skill, but these odds do not make one ounce of sense for the relative quality or form of the clubs playing in this match, and we learned that last weekend when we made money fading Luzern. I’ve got no problem double dipping with a good bet (but not with food, don’t be an animal) and I’ll gladly take Luzern to handle this at home.
⛏️ PICK: Zurich moneyline (-120)
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Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
22,000+ 
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